[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 00N33W to 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed over the offshore waters
of Liberia and Sierra Leone and from 04S to 05N between 35W and
51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A former cold front has stalled along the northern gulf coastal
waters from Panama City to SE Louisiana to Port Lavaca, Texas. The
remainder basin is under the influence of a weak surface ridge
anchored by a 1014 mb high near 23N87W. This is supporting light
to gentle variable winds across the central basin. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and low pressure along Mexico, supports
moderate to fresh SE winds W of 95W and winds of the same speed
off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. In the far NE gulf, the
pressure gradient between the front and the ridge supports fresh
to locally strong SW to W winds. Seas basin-wide are 3 to 4 ft,
except to 5 ft in the Florida Big Bend region.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the area and
become centered over the eastern Gulf through Wed. The high
pressure will then reform over the NE Gulf through Sat night.
Fresh winds will pulse across the Bay of Campeche each night
during the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba SW to the Cayman
Islands to NE Honduras adjacent waters. Isolated showers are ahead
of the front reaching as far as the Windward Passage. Winds in the
NW Caribbean are mainly light to gentle, except for moderate
trades across Belize and western Honduras offshore waters. In the
SW Caribbean, the E Pacific extension of the monsoon trough
supports scattered showers in the Costa Rica and Nicaragua
offshore waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between lower
pressure over northern S America and surface ridging NNE of the
region supports fresh to strong winds in the south-central and SE
basin and gentle to moderate trades in the NE Caribbean. Seas are
5 to 6 ft in the SE regional waters and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front over the NW Caribbean will
dissipate early Tue. Fresh to strong winds will develop offshore
of Colombia tonight and continue through the rest of the week. By
late Thu, similar winds will be over most of the central and
eastern Caribbean lasting through late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68.5W, across the Bahamas, to
22N78W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is
observed up to 180 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to strong SW
winds are observed ahead of the front, with moderate to fresh
westerly winds behind the front. Seas are 6-10 ft in the western
Atlantic, increasing with latitude. 1022 mb high pressure
centered near 30N51W dominates the central subtropical Atlantic.
Winds are light near the high surrounded by moderate
anticyclonic flow. Farther east, a stationary boundary extends
from 31N27W to 21N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 22N to 31N, between 25W and 34W. Moderate westerly winds
are west of the front with gentle to moderate SW winds east of
the boundary. Moderate trade winds dominate the remainder of the
basin. 7-10 ft seas in northerly swell are observed north of
27N, between 23W and 59W. Otherwise, seas are generally 5-7 ft
across the central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N69W
to east-central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
vicinity of the front to the N of 28N today. The front will
gradually weaken and dissipate on Tue as it approaches the
eastern part of the area. The next front, weaker in intensity,
will move across the northern waters by mid-week.

$$
Ramos
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