[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 01S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and east
of 18W, and from 01N to 04N between 32W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front has entered the far northern Gulf waters,
extending from the Florida Panhandle, across the Mississippi
River Delta, to near Houston, Texas. Otherwise, high pressure
centered north of the Yucatan Peninsula, near 24N88W, is causing
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the majority of the
basin. The exception is in the western Gulf near the Texas-
Mexico border, where southerly winds have increased to a fresh
breeze. Seas are generally 2-4 ft across the basin, with 3-5 ft
associated with the fresh winds in the western Gulf, and 4-6 ft
swell in the SE Gulf, on an abating trend.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the area and
become centered over the eastern Gulf through Wed. Fresh winds
will pulse across the Bay of Campeche each night during the
forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across the NW Caribbean, from 21N79W
to 17N85W. A few showers and thunderstorms are observed near the
boundary. West of the front, winds are moderate from the NE.
East of the front in the NW Caribbean, winds are light and
variable. A moderate to fresh easterly breeze dominates the
remainder of the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft across the majority of
the basin, with 2-4 ft near the light winds ahead of the
stationary boundary.

For the forecast, a stationary front over the NW Caribbean will
begin to weaken this afternoon and dissipate by early Tue.
Fresh to strong winds will develop offshore Colombia tonight and
continue through the rest of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N68.5W, across the Bahamas, to
22N78W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is
observed up to 180 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to strong SW
winds are observed ahead of the front, with moderate to fresh
westerly winds behind the front. Seas are 6-10 ft in the western
Atlantic, increasing with latitude. 1022 mb high pressure
centered near 30N51W dominates the central subtropical Atlantic.
Winds are light near the high surrounded by moderate
anticyclonic flow. Farther east, a stationary boundary extends
from 31N27W to 21N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 22N to 31N, between 25W and 34W. Moderate westerly winds
are west of the front with gentle to moderate SW winds east of
the boundary. Moderate trade winds dominate the remainder of the
basin. 7-10 ft seas in northerly swell are observed north of
27N, between 23W and 59W. Otherwise, seas are generally 5-7 ft
across the central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N69W
to east-central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
vicinity of the front to the N of 28N today. The front will
gradually weaken and dissipate on Tue as it approaches the
eastern part of the area. The next front, weaker in intensity,
will move across the northern waters by mid-week.

$$
Flynn
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