[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a
surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over
Colombia will continue to support winds pulsing to gale force
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia every night through Mon
night. Seas are expected to peak around 13 ft each night under the
strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A strengthening low pressure system
over the north Atlantic will produce gale to storm-force winds
over the next few days north of our area. The system will send
large NW to N swell southward, with seas greater than 12 ft
entering out northern waters early Sat and then expanding
southeastward. Seas to 12 to 17 ft are forecast to cover an area
from 22N to 31N between 57W and 22W Sat through Mon. The highest
seas of 15 to 17 ft are forecast to be confined to north of 29N
between 51W and 37W Sat afternoon through Sun morning. The
significant wave heights will diminish below 12 ft Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W to 04N17.5W to 01N23W. The ITCZ extends from 01N23W to
01S31W to 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south
of 03N and west of 21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico suppressing the
development of deep convection. Fresh SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft
prevail over the central and western Gulf. Moderate to fresh ESE
winds are over the E Gulf with seas 3-5 ft. Over the south-central
Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche, fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure along the U.S. eastern seaboard
will shift eastward in response to a weakening cold front that
will move across the NE Gulf over the weekend. The fresh winds
will diminish late tonight. Atlantic high pressure will build in
again over the area early next week. Pulsing fresh to locally
strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will change little into
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Pockets of isolated, weak showers are seen across the NE and SW
Caribbean Sea. However, the dry environment is suppressing the
formation of deep convection. Fresh trades prevail across the
eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong to gale force in
the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5-8 ft, except for 8-13 ft
in the strong to gale area. From the Windward Passage toward NE
Jamaica, strong NE winds are likely occurring with seas around 6
ft. Fresh E winds are likely occurring in the lee of Cuba and in
the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 5 ft. Moderate trades and 3-4 ft
seas prevail elsewhere across the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through
early next week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force
each night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to strong across
the approach to the Windward Passage through Sat evening. Strong
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras every night through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to 8-9 ft in the
Tropical North Atlantic this weekend, then slowly subside through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
Significant swell event forecast for the central and eastern
Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N49W to 24N70W, stationary to southern
Andros Island, Bahamas near 24N77W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm either side of the front, mainly east of 54W.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring north of the
boundary and west of 64W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Fresh
to locally strong NE winds are NW of the front, north of 29N
between the front and 62W, where seas are 8-10 ft. Moderate to
fresh winds are present elsewhere north of 27N and between 42W and
65W, along with seas of 6-9 ft.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical
ridge that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. The
pressure gradient between 1030 mb high pressure centered near
36N17W and lower pressures along the W coast of Africa near
Mauritania support fresh to near-gale force NE winds north of 22N
and east of 29W. Seas in this region are 7-10 ft. In the tropical
Atlantic, from 05N to 17N, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and
6-7 ft seas are found. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move slowly southeastward today, and reach along 22/23N tonight
before it weakens and dissipates Sat. High pressure building in
the wake of the front will cause winds to increase to fresh to
strong early this morning east of the NW Bahamas, then begin to
diminish W of 65W after midnight tonight. Fresh to strong
southwest winds will develop over the waters offshore northeastern
Florida tonight in advance of the next cold front that will move
off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Sat evening. This cold
front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N59W to
27N68W and to 26N73W by Mon night, then weaken through Tue night.
The fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front will shift
eastward across the waters north of about 29N through Sun before
shifting north of the 31N late Sun night.

$$
Hagen
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