[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310445
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between a surface
ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over
Colombia will support fresh to strong NE to E trades over the
central Caribbean through early next week. Winds near the coast of
NW Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the evening and early
morning hours through early next week. Seas are expected to peak
at 10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: Strengthening low pressure system
over the north Atlantic will produce gale to storm-force winds
over the next few days. These winds will remain north of the
central tropical Atlantic, but an area of seas of 12 ft and
greater will propagate southward, entering our northern waters
early Saturday and then expand southeastward. Seas of 12 ft or
greater are forecast to cover an area from 22N to 31N and between
55W and 25W. Seas will peak near 16 ft near 31N44W late Sat. The
significant wave heights will diminish below 12 ft Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N16W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to
01S30W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection south of 02N and
west of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico suppressing the
development of deep convection. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are
found off NW Yucatan, mainly south of 23N and east of 93W. Seas in
these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate to fresh E-SE breezes are noted
in the western and NW Gulf waters and also the Straits of Florida.
Seas in the areas described are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure that extends from the U.S. eastern
seaboard to across the area is maintaining fresh southeast winds
over the NW Gulf. These winds will expand eastward through Fri
as the high pressure shifts eastward in response to a weakening
cold front that will move across the NE Gulf over the weekend.
The fresh winds will diminish late Fri night. Atlantic high
pressure will build southwestward over the area early next week.
Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula
will change little into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Pockets of isolated, weak showers are seen across the NE and SW
Caribbean Sea and in the lee of Cuba. However, the dry
environment is suppressing the formation of deep convection.
Outside of the south-central Caribbean, latest scatterometer
satellite data show moderate to fresh easterly winds in the
north-central and eastern Caribbean waters. Seas are 4-7 ft in the
areas described. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are also found in
the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba and Windward Passage waters,
along with seas of 2-4 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
seas are prevalent elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through early next
week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each
night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to strong across the
approach to the Windward Passage tonight through Sat. Strong winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat night, then
again Mon night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to 8-9 ft in the
Tropical North Atlantic this weekend, then slowly subside through
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a
Significant Swell event forecast for the central and eastern
Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to the central Bahamas and no
deep convection is evident near this boundary. Recent
scatterometer satellite data and surface observations indicate
that fresh to strong NE-E winds are found north of the boundary
and west of 67W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to
fresh winds are present north of 27N and between 42W and 62W,
along with seas of 6-9 ft.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical
ridge that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. The
pressure gradient between the strong high pressure south of the
Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to near-gale
force NE winds north of 22N and east of 27W. Seas in this region
are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

In the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly move
southeastward through Fri, reaching along 22N/23N before it
weakens and dissipates Sat. High pressure building in the wake of
the front is producing moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
north of the front. These winds will increase to fresh to strong
Fri, then begin to diminish late Fri night. Fresh to strong
southwest winds will develop over the waters offshore northeastern
Florida Fri night in advance of the next cold front that will
move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Sat evening. This cold
front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N59W to
27N68W and to 26N73W by Mon night, then weaken through Tue night.
The fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front will shift
eastward across the waters north of about 29N through Sun before
shifting north of the 31N late Sun night.

$$
DELGADO
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