[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic
high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue
to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia
and Gulf of Venezuela through Tue night. Seas are forecast to
peak around 12 to 13 ft each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W.
Scatterometer data from 15 UTC indicated 25 to 30 kt within about
90 nm of the coast of Colombia, with 20 to 25 kt winds elsewhere
across the central Caribbean.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell associated with
a complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has
propagated into the forecast waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are
covering the waters N of 28N between 35W and 55W, peaking near 16
ft. Seas in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of
25N and east of 45W through tonight, before shifting east of 35W
early Mon. Wave periods will average 14 to 16 seconds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near
07N11W and continues to 02N22W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W to
01N50W. No significant convection is evident.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into the
Gulf of Mexico to the coast of Texas. A trough is analyzed off the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The gradient between the
trough and the ridge is supporting fresh SE to S winds and 5 to 7
ft combined seas across the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to
S winds and 3 to 5 ft are evident elsewhere. No significant shower
or thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the area through Tue.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula
during the evening hours through this period. A cold front
entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue will move southeastward and
reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico
Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Florida Straits
to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the front
into Wed morning. Afterward, a high pressure near the US Mid-
Atlantic coast will reinforce the front and create moderate to
fresh with locally strong easterly winds across the Bay of
Campeche and southeastern Gulf after midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

High pressure between a 1023 mb high northeast of the central
Bahamas and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting strong to
near gale- force winds over the south central Caribbean, near the
coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong winds over the remainder
of the central Caribbean. An altimeter satellite pass from around
16 UTC hinted combined seas may be reaching 8 to 10 ft over the
south- central Caribbean. Reports from Roatan in the Bay Islands
along with a scatterometer satellite pass from around 16 UTC
indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras,
where combined seas may be reaching 8 ft. Moderate to fresh E to
SE winds and mainly 5 to 7 ft combined seas are evident elsewhere.
Regional radar composites indicate a few passing showers over the
northern Leeward Islands, but otherwise no significant weather.

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to
strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean most of this week.
Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through
Tue night, and at the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Fresh to strong
trade winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of
Haiti through Mon night, and at the Gulf of Honduras through Wed
morning, occasionally reaching near-gale force. Moderate to fresh
trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
event that is already propagating across the forecast waters.

A ridge covers the waters north of 20N west of 55W centered on a
1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W. Farther east, a cold front
extends from near the Azores to 27N45W to 29N55W. Fresh to
strong winds are noted both ahead of and following the front,
north of 28N. But the main impact is the large area of NW
accompanying the front and discussed in the Special Features
section. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft
combined seas are noted south of the ridge in the tropical
Atlantic south of 20N and west of 40W. Gentle to moderate winds
and mainly 5 to 7 ft combined seas are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure will prevail over
the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to
move off the US east coast on Tue morning, then slowly track
eastward north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly
winds and higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold
front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong NE to
ENE winds across the Bahamas by Thu night.

$$
Christensen
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