[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic
high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue
to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia
through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 12 to 13 ft
each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W. Recent scattetometer data
provide observations of 25 to 30 kt witin about 90 nm of the coast
of Colombia, with 20 to 25 kt winds elsewhere across the central
Caribbean.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell associated with
a complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has
propagated into the forecast waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are
covering the waters N of 30N between 38W and 52W, peaking near 15
ft. Seas in excess of 12 ft will spread over the waters north of
25N and east of 45W Sun and Sun night, before shifting east of 35W
early Mon. Maximum combined seas will be 17 ft near 31N42W late
today. Wave periods will average 14 to 16 seconds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near
07N11W and continues SW to 02N22W. The ITCZ extends from 02N22W
to 01N30W to 00N50W. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection
is noted from 00N to 03N between 07W and 11W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is elsewhere, from 00N to 05N
between 05W and 19W. Similar convective activity is also seen from
00N to 02N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure located south of Bermuda has a ridge extending across
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of this
system, gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed across the
Gulf waters. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range north of the Yucatan
peninsula, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere N of 22N and W of 85W. Seas
are 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters of Florida, and 2 to 4 ft
in the Bay of Campeche. Buoy and platform observations indicate
areas of fog over the NW Gulf while abundant cloudiness dominates
the coastal waters of Texas due to the presence of stationary
front located just inland.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan
peninsula during the evening hours through Tue. A cold front
entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue morning will move southeastward
and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico,
Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Florida
Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the
front into Wed morning. Afterward, a high pressure near the US
Mid-Atlantic coast will reinforce the front and create moderate to
fresh easterly winds across the Bay of Campeche and southeastern
Gulf after midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Strong to near gale-force winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia while fresh to strong winds
are seen over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Fresh to
strong SE winds are noted W of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except gentle winds in
the lee of Cuba. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range over the south
central Caribbean based on a pair of altimeter passes, and 6 to 8
ft over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere,
except 2 to 4 ft in the lee of Cuba.

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered
passing showers. Some of these patches of moisture are affecting
the Leeward Islands, the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and
also the Cayman Islands.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean through
the middle of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to
gale-force at night through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade
winds will persist in the Windward Passage and north of Hispaniola
through Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over
the Gulf of Honduras until Wed afternoon, occasionally reaching
near-gale force locally. Moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
event that is already propagating across the forecast waters.

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered south of Bermuda near 29N63W
and dominates the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and
Florida. The associated ridge also reaches the NE Caribbean. Fresh
to locally strong E to SE winds are between Haiti and the Turks
and Caicos Islands, including the approach to the Windward Passage.
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. A cold
front extends from 31N39W to 28N45W to 30N57W. Moderate to fresh
winds are on either side of the front mainly N of 27N and E of
50W. The aforementioned swell event follows this front forecast to
move SE through Sun while weakening. Aside from the area of seas
greater than 12 ft, seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 28N between
35W and 55W. A ridge extends across the Madeira and the Canary
Islands. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 55W and the
Lesser Antilles while mainly moderate trades are noted across the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in the 5 to
7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off
the US east coast on Tue evening, then slowly track eastward
north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and
higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the
pressure gradient, generating fresh NE to E winds across the
Bahamas by Thu.

$$
GR
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