[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250839
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to
induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing
to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through
Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 10-12 ft each morning
in the vicinity of 12N76W.

Atlantic large swell event: A storm force low over the N Atlantic
has generated a large long-period NW swell. The associated cold
front will propagate into the waters E of 55W tonight. Seas
greater than 12 ft will propagate into the northern waters in the
wake of the front, N of 30N between 40W and 50W tonight. Seas
will peak near 17 ft over the waters N of 30N between 40W and 45W
Sun night. The swell will propagate southward and eastward,
reaching as far south as 25N early Mon before starting to subside.
Seas over the discussion waters associated to this swell even will
subside below 12 ft Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 00N25W. The ITCZ continues from 00N25W to
04N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N
between 20W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong
winds are noted N of the Yucatan peninsula as well as off
Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range N of the Yucatan peninsula, 4-6 ft W
of 90W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging extending into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic will slowly shift
south through late Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the
Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through the period. A
weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early
Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Another
cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Mon night and move slowly
southeastward. The front will reach from northern Florida to NE
Mexico by late Tue and the southeastern Gulf to the central Gulf
by late Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will follow
behind the front. Fresh east to southeast winds develop in the NW
Gulf Wed and Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Strong to gale-force winds are noted within 90 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted elsewhere over
the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are found over the
Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the
7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of
4-6 ft prevail, except in the lee of Cuba where seas are in the
3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will support
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to
near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of
Colombia through Tue night. Winds will pulse to strong in the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the weekend.
Strong trade winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras into
early next week. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across
the eastern and central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 30N62W. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh
winds are found off the coast of northern Florida. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas in the 8-10 ft range are
noted N of 25N between 35W and 45W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft
prevail, except 4-5 ft in the vicinity of the high center.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
area through the weekend, then shift slightly southward next week
as a cold front moves across the waters north of the Bahamas.
Fresh to strong winds will be in the vicinity of the cold front
along with building seas. Winds are expected to reach near gale-
force speeds on either side of the front north of 29N the middle
of next week as the front reaches from near 31N60W to the central
Bahamas and to east- central Cuba.

$$
AL

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