[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure
gradient, that is between an Atlantic Ocean surface ridge, and
comparatively lower pressure in Colombia, will continue to induce
strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea in general. The
wind speeds will pulse to gale-force during the late night and
early morning hours, within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia
through Tuesday night. The sea heights are forecast to range from
8 feet to 9 feet from 10N to 14N between 70W and 80W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
on this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W, to 01N25W. The ITCZ is along 05S25W,
06S32W, to 05S37W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 07N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet within 180 nm of
the coast of Texas from the middle Texas Gulf coast southward, and
within 180 nm off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the rest of the area that
is from 90W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet
in the Straits of Florida, and from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere
from 90W eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds have been in the
western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE
winds are in the rest of the area. It is possible that light
smoke from agricultural fires may be in parts of the western
Gulf of Mexico. It is expected for the amounts to be less than
what has been reported during recent days.

High pressure ridging extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico
from the western Atlantic will slowly shift south through late
Mon. Moderate to fresh winds southerly winds will continue across
most of the Gulf through late tonight. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours
through the period. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before
dissipating Sat night. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf
late Mon night and move slowly southeastward. The front will reach
from northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue and the
southeastern Gulf to the central Gulf by late Wed. Moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds will follow behind the front. Fresh
east to southeast winds develop in the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
Gale-Force Wind Warning, within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia.
The gale-force winds are imminent.

Near gale-force NE winds are elsewhere within 150 nm of the coast
of Colombia. Strong NE winds are elsewhere in the remainder of
the areas that are within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh
NE winds are in the remainder of the areas that are from 17N
southward between 70W and 80W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE
winds are from 09N to 21N between 56W and 66W. Strong easterly
winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Honduras. Fresh easterly
winds are elsewhere from 80W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds
are moving through the NE part of the Windward Passage. Moderate
SE winds are elsewhere from 17N northward between 70W and 80W.
The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 14N southward
between NE Colombia and 80W. The sea heights are ranging from
6 feet to 7 feet from 14N to 16N between 68W and 71W. The sea
heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 80W
eastward. The sea heights are ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet from
80W westward.

The pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and
lower pressure over Colombia will support strong winds over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to near gale to gale-force
winds at night near the coast of Colombia through at least Tue
night. Winds will pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will
develop over the Gulf of Honduras this evening and continue into
early next week. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across
the eastern and central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N37W, to 29N40W, 26N50W,
to 25N54W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward
between 20W and 60W. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to
9 feet from 20N northward from 60W eastward in general. An
exception has been the sea heights that have been ranging from
10 feet to 11 feet between Africa and the Canary Islands. The sea
heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet from 20N southward from
60W eastward. An exception has been the range from 2 feet to
4 feet within 180 nm to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 24N northward from
20W eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are within
500 nm to 750 nm on either side of the line 17N19W 11N35W 13N48W
18N62W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 09N to 21N
between 56W and 66W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 29N64W. The sea heights
are ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet between 60W and 70W. The sea
heights are ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet from the Bahamas
northward from 70W westward. The sea heights are ranging from
1 foot to 3 feet from Andros Island southward. The sea heights
have been 1 foot or less near the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are on the western side of the anticyclonic wind
flow that is moving around the 1022 mb high pressure center, from
the Bahamas northward from 70W westward.

High pressure will prevail over the area through the weekend,
then shift slightly southward next week as a cold front moves
across the waters north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds will
be in the vicinity of the cold front along with building seas.
Winds are expected to reach near gale- force speeds on either side
of the front north of 29N the middle of next week as the front
reaches from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas and to east-
central Cuba.

$$
MT/al
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