[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to
induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with
pulsing near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of
Colombia through at least Mon night. A ship in the vicinity of
11.1N 76W recently reported a significant wave height of 13 ft.
Seas are forecast to peak around 12-13 ft each morning around
sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal boarder of Sierra
Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 03N20W to 00N28W. The ITCZ
continues from 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from
00N-04N between 13W-24W, and south of 02N between 36W-47W. The
strongest convection within that area is located within 180 nm of
the coast of Brazil, from 01N to 03S between 40W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high-pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic, across
Florida and into the NE and north-central Gulf of Mexico. Recent
buoy data indicate fresh to strong SSE winds and seas of 5 to 8
ft across the western Gulf. A diurnal surface trough over the
central Bay of Campeche at 0900 UTC is supporting fresh E to SE
winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where seas are 4-6 ft.
Moderate easterly winds are funneling through the Straits of
Florida, generating 4-5 ft seas. Light to gentle winds are over
the NE Gulf with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging extending into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic will persist
through tonight, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds,
except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through
today. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during
the evening hours through the next few days. Patchy dense fog is
possible near portions of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this
morning, and again tonight through Sat morning. A weak cold front
is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move
southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally
fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon.
Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Mon night and
move slowly southeastward. The front should reach from northern
Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will follow in behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, leading to
subsidence and relatively dry conditions. The gradient between
subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean
is supporting moderate to fresh trades across the eastern
Caribbean, and fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean.
E-NE winds are strong to gale force in the Colombian basin. Fresh
NE winds likely prevail over the Windward Passage while fresh E
winds are in the lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds
prevail elsewhere over the western Caribbean. Seas are 5-6 ft in
the E Caribbean and 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, except up to
13 ft in the area of gales offshore Colombia. Seas are 6-8 ft in
the Windward Passage, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and lee of
Cuba, and generally around 4-5 ft elsewhere across the NW
Caribbean.

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, winds will
continue to pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and south of
Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop
over the Gulf of Honduras this evening and continue into early
next week. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across the eastern
and central Caribbean through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends across the western subtropical Atlantic
from a 1025 mb high pressure near 33N58W to 29N70W to Cape
Canaveral, FL. Gentle winds prevail within 150 nm of the ridge
axis. Winds increase to moderate easterlies south of 27.5N and
further increase to fresh from the central Bahamas southward
through the Old Bahama Channel. Seas follow a similar trend,
ranging from 4-5 ft off northern and central FLorida to 7-8 ft
just east of the SE Bahamas.

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 25N57W. A shear line is
analyzed from 25N57W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Strong NE
winds are occurring within 180 nm NW of the cold front, mainly
north of 27N and east of 54W. Seas are 10-13 ft in the strong wind
area. Fresh winds and 7-10 ft seas prevail elsewhere within 270
nm NW of the front and shear line, to the east of 70W. Fresh SW
winds and 8-10 ft seas prevail east of the front to 35W, mainly
north of 29N. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the
front, mainly north of 29N.

East of the aforementioned front, another surface ridge extends
WSW from a 1021 mb high near 31N27W to 26N41W to 22N61W. Light to
gentle winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail in the ridge area. Fresh NE
winds and 8-10 ft seas extend from the coast of Morocco through
the Canary Islands SW to about 20N26W. Over the tropical Atlantic,
moderate trades and seas of 5-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds NW of the aforementioned
shear line will diminish this morning. High pressure ridging will
settle in along 28/29N late today, with an E to W orientation.
Fresh southerly winds are expected offshore northeast Florida
tonight through Sat night as a weak frontal boundary moves just
offshore southeastern Georgia and NE Florida. The high pressure
ridge will then be nudged southward to along 26N Mon through late
Tue as a cold front approaches 31N. Farther east, a cold front
will enter the region Sat night, and extend from 31N40W to
27.5N53W by early Sun. The front will bring fresh to strong winds
N of 29N between about 34W and 57W. Large NW to N swell will come
in behind the front beginning Sun and Sun night, with seas
exceeding 12 ft north of 25N between 30W and 53W. The swell will
push southeastward through Mon night across portions of the
eastern and central Atlantic.

$$
Hagen
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