[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to
induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with
pulsing near gale to minimal gale-force winds at night near the
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak
around 12 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of
11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to the equator at 31W. The ITCZ continues from 00N31W to 01S43W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed near the monsoon
trough from the equator to 07N, between 13W to 25W. Scattered
weak convection is observed near the ITCZ from 02S to 02N,
between 36W to 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A high-pressure ridge extends across the northern portion of the
basin. Moderate to fresh SE flow dominates the western Gulf,
with seas of 5-7 ft. A surface trough along the Yucatan
Peninsula is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds offshore
Merida Mexico, where seas are 4-6 ft. Moderate easterly winds
are funneling through the Florida Straits, generating 4-5 ft
seas. Conditions are more favorable in the NE Gulf, with gentle
to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging extending into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic will persist
through Fri night, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh
winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf
through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW
Yucatan during the evening hours through the next few days. A
weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early
Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night.
Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the
basin through Mon. Another cold front is expected to enter the
NW Gulf late on Mon and stall. The front will then begin to move
southeastward starting late Mon night in response to high
pressure that will build southward behind it. The front should
reach from northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds will follow in behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh
trades across the eastern and central Caribbean. E-NE winds are
strong to gale force in the Colombian basin. Locally, winds are
also strong in the lee of the Dominican Republic and through the
Windward Passage. Easterly winds are generally moderate in the
NW Caribbean. Seas are generally in the 6-8 ft range, with 9-11
ft near the Colombian Basin gales, and 4-6 ft observed in the SE
and NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high-pressure
ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing
near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of
Colombia through the forecast period. Winds will continue to
pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the
Gulf of Honduras Fri evening and continue into early next week.
Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across the eastern and
central Caribbean through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a high-pressure
ridge stretching roughly along 29N. Winds are gentle within the
ridge, increasing to moderate easterlies south of 28N and
further increasing to fresh through the Old Bahama Channel. Seas
follow a similar trend, increasing from 4-8 ft with decreasing
latitude, although seas remain 3-5 ft in the lee of the Bahamas.
A cold front extends from a 1018 mb low centered near 31N47W to
the SE Bahamas near 22N72W. A recent scatterometer pass found
strong to near gale force NE winds just north of the low center.
Otherwise winds are generally fresh from the NE with 8-12 ft
seas behind the front and gentle to moderate from various
directions with 5-8 ft seas ahead of the front.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1022 mb high pressure centered near
31N31W and associated ridge extending NE and SW dominates the
pattern. Winds are gentle within the ridge, increasing to fresh
northeasterlies as the pressure gradient increases near the
Canary Islands. Otherwise winds are generally moderate from the
NE in the eastern Atlantic with 6-10 ft seas north of 16N and 4-
6 ft seas south of 16N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from
near 25N55W to 21N70W early Fri before dissipating. Fresh to
strong northeast winds and high seas will continue behind this
front north of 25N and east of 64W through tonight. High
pressure ridging will settle in along 28/29N late Fri, with an E
to W orientation. Fresh southerly winds are expected offshore
northeast Florida Fri night through Sat night as a weak frontal
boundary moves just offshore southeastern Georgia and NE
Florida. The high-pressure ridge will then be nudged southward
to along 26N Mon through late Tue as a cold front approaches 31N.

$$
Flynn
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