[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: As the stationary front in the NW
Caribbean dissipates over the next 24 hours, the gradient
between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW
Caribbean will increase, supporting fresh to strong trades
across the central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force
nightly off the coast of Colombia Tue through Fri with max
conditions NE 35 to 40 kt. Seas will peak near 13 ft within the
strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore
Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean over the coast of
Sierra Leone near 12N16W and continues to 02N28W. An ITCZ
continues from 02N28W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 08N southward between 17W and 34W.  Scattered moderate
with isolated strong convection is noted along the coast on NE
Brazil south of 03N and west of 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building in the wake of a front that has exited
the basin. Strong NE winds are noted in the southern Gulf, while
gradually decreasing to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf.
Seas are moderate in the northern Gulf and increasing to rough
to very rough in the southern Gulf, with the highest seas
extending into the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the southern
and SE United States through the workweek, allowing for
primarily moderate to fresh winds. Winds will increase to strong
speeds in the western Gulf waters on Tue and then on Thu. Strong
winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan nightly through the next
several days, reaching the southern Gulf waters. A cold front
will enter the NW Gulf on Fri and slides eastward afterwards
while losing strength.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends across the NW Caribbean from central
Cuba near 22N80W to the Bay Islands. Isolated showers are
observed along the frontal boundary south of 20N and east to
81W. Strong NE winds are observed north of the front in the
Yucatan Channel, where seas are currently 9 to 12 ft, on an
abating trend. Otherwise, the gradient between subtropical high
pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting
fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, where wave
heights are 5 to 7 ft, locally 8 to 10 ft off the coast of
Colombia. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with slight
seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas
will persist in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through this evening.
Marine conditions will improve late tonight through Tue as the
stalled front dissipates. Fresh to strong easterly winds will
pulse off Colombia through tonight, then increase to between
strong and near-gale by Tue. These winds will peak at gale-force
Tue night and Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds, and moderate seas
will prevail across the eastern and north-central Caribbean,
including the Atlantic Passages through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N72W to central Cuba near
23N79W. Isolated showers are observed along the frontal boundary
north of 24N. Behind the front winds are moderate to fresh from
the north with 4 to 6 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds are
moderate to fresh from the south with 4 to 6 ft seas. In the
central Atlantic, a 1030 mb high centered near 31N44W dominates
the pattern. Winds are gentle near the high-pressure center,
increasing to fresh easterlies south of 25N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
in the central Atlantic within northerly swell. Moderate winds
and seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front is forecast
to begin moving eastward again later tonight. By early this
afternoon, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are
expected behind this front east of 77W and north of 27N.
Frequent gusts to gale force are possible late this evening
through Tue morning, especially in areas of strong convection.
Afterward, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas should shift
eastward across the western Atlantic with the front through
midweek. Large northerly swell northeast and east of the Lesser
Antilles should gradually subside through Wed.

$$
Nepaul
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