[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: As the cold front in the NW Caribbean
dissipates over the next 24 hours, the gradient between
subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean
will increase, supporting fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force nightly off
the coast of Colombia Tue through Fri with max conditions NE
35-40 kt. Seas will peak near 13 ft within the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean over the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 01N30W. An ITCZ continues
from 01N30W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N
to 07N between 18W and 22W. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is noted along the coast on NE Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has passed through the basin overnight with high
pressure building in its wake. NE winds are strong in the
southern Gulf, gradually decreasing to moderate to fresh in the
northern Gulf. Seas are rough to very rough in the southern Gulf
and moderate in the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, northerly winds have decreased to between
moderate and fresh across the northern Gulf. A similar trend is
also expected for the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche
by early this afternoon. Seas in the same area should subside to
moderate by this evening. By late tonight, a high pressure
building southward from the Gulf States will introduce fresh to
occasional strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about a
Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends across the NW Caribbean from NW Cuba
near 22N82W to Honduras near 16N87W. Isolated showers are
observed along the frontal boundary. Strong NE winds are
observed north the front in the Yucatan Channel, where seas are
currently 9-12 ft, on an abating trend.  Otherwise, the gradient
between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW
Gulf is supporting fresh trades in the central and eastern
Caribbean, where wave heights are 5-7 ft, locally 8-10 ft off
the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate
with slight seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas
will persist in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through this evening.
Marine conditions will improve late tonight through Tue as the
stalled front dissipates. Fresh to strong easterly winds will
pulse off Colombia through tonight, then increase to between
strong and near-gale by Tue. These winds will peak at gale-force
Tue night and Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds, and moderate seas
will prevail across the eastern and north-central Caribbean,
including the Atlantic Passages through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N70W to NW Cuba near 23N80W.
Isolated showers are observed along the frontal boundary. Behind
the front winds are moderate to fresh from the north with 4-6 ft
seas. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the
south with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a 1029 mb high
centered near 30N46W dominates the pattern. Winds are gentle
near the high-pressure center, increasing to fresh easterlies
south of 25N. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Atlantic within
northerly swell. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will briefly
stall today before moving eastward again as a cold front later
tonight. By early this afternoon, fresh to strong northerly winds
and rough seas are expected behind this front east of 77W and
north of 27N. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible late this
evening through Tue morning. Afterward, fresh to strong NE winds
and rough seas should shift eastward across the western Atlantic
with the front through midweek. Large northerly swell northeast
and east of the Lesser Antilles should gradually subside through
Wed.

$$

Forecasters DF/PC
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