[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N41W
SW to the Leeward Islands near 17N62W where it stalls and contiues
to the Dominican Republic offshore waters. Large and long period
NW swell continues in the lee of the cold front. Seas 12 ft or
greater are north of 24N between 40W and 61W. Seas peak to 16 ft
in the discussion waters N of 30N between 50W and 56W. Swell
direction is NW with a period of 11 to 15 seconds. The front will
continue moving southeastward and reach from 30N35W to near
Barbados Sat morning. The swell behind will spread southward to
17N and beyond 35W. Seas behind the front are not expected to
subside below 12 ft until Sun afternoon as the front moves E of
35W.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient between
surface high pressure of 1023 mb centered near 33N23W and lower
pressures over northern Africa will lead to the development of
gale force winds in the regions of Agadir Sat morning through Sat
evening and in the Tarfaya region Sat night. Please visit
Meteofrance website for further details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front
extends from SE Alabama near 30N87W SW to 24N94W to just south of
Tampico near 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the
front to the Florida Big Bend and north of 25N. Gale force N
winds of 30-40 kt are currently impacting the west-central Gulf
of Mexico offshore waters as well as the Veracruz offshore waters.
Winds are forecast to diminish below Gale Force Sat morning. Seas
currently between 8-12 ft in the lee of the cold front will build
to 10-14 ft across the central and SW Gulf through the weekend.
The front will reach from southern Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche on Sat evening, bringing strong to near-gale N to NE
winds into the northeastern and central Gulf. Frequent gusts to
gale-force are possible in the central Gulf Sat evening through
Sun, and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these SPECIAL FEATURES.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of Liberia
near 06N11W then continues southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ
continues westward from 02N20W to 04N35W to the Amazon Delta,
Brazil. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 06N
between 11W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

Outside of the Gale Warning area and ahead of the cold front
described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, moderate to locally
fresh S winds and 4-7 ft seas are analyzed in the central and
eastern sections of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Panama
City, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by this evening. Winds to
gale force following the front over the far W and SW Gulf will
diminish through tonight. The front will slowly move across the
Gulf through late Sun, spreading strong to near-gale N to NE
winds and rough seas into the east-central and central Gulf.
Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible over the south-central
Gulf and off northwest Yucatan late Sun. Looking ahead, winds and
seas will gradually diminish across the Gulf during the early to
middle parts of next week as the front stalls and dissipates over
the far northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Leeward Islands near 17N62W to
the Dominican Republic offshore waters. Fresh NE winds are noted
north of the boundary along with seas to 8 ft. High pressure
extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean waters supports fresh
to locally strong trade winds across the central basin being the
strongest winds S of Hispaniola, offshore Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Seas in the aforementioned areas are 5-7 ft. Fresh
NE winds are also noted in the Windward and Mona Passages with
seas to 8 ft, higher in the Mona Passage. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate trades prevail with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area behind the
front will support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and
moderate to occasionally rough seas across the eastern and central
Caribbean into early next week. Large northerly swell will
continue to impact Atlantic passages through Sat night. Fresh to
strong E winds will continue to pulse off Colombia through mid
week. Winds and seas will increase in the Yucatan Channel by Sun
night as a cold front moves into the area. These winds and seas
will gradually diminish through Tue as the stalled front
dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Significant Swell Event and a Gale Warning for the regions of
Agadir and Tarfaya.

A cold front extends from 31N41W SW to the Leeward Islands near
17N62W where it stalls and contiues to the Dominican Republic
offshore waters. High pressure of 1022 mb is centered between the
northern Bahamas and Bermuda, building behind the cold front. In
addition to the area of 12 ft seas described in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section, seas greater than 8 ft are north of 17N between
37W and 72W. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N,
gentle to moderate trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the current pattern will support
moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds off Hispaniola into
Sat night. Large northerly swell west of 70W will subside through
Sun. Meanwhile expect moderate to fresh southerly flow and
building seas north of 29N between northeast Florida and Bermuda
through late Sat ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Sat morning. The front will move east and stall from
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Mon. Looking ahead,
seas will build north of the stalled front Mon through mid week
with NE swell.

$$
Ramos
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