[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N44W
to the Leeward Islands near 17N63W. Large and long period NW swell
continues in the lee of the cold front. Seas 12 ft or greater are
north of a line from 31N44W along the cold front to 23N57W to
31N65W. Seas peak to 17 ft in the discussion waters near 31N57W.
Swell direction is NW with a period of 11 to 14 seconds. The
front will continue moving southeastward and reach from 30N35W to
near Barbados Sat morning. The swell behind will spread southward
to 17N and beyond 35W. Seas behind the front are not expected to
subside below 12 ft until Sun afternoon as the front moves E of
35W.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC, a strong cold front
extends from the Louisiana coast near 29N91W to the coast of
Mexico near 23N98W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
cold front north of 26N. Gale force N winds of 30-40 kt are
currently impacting the west- central Gulf of Mexico offshore of
Tampico, Mexico in the lee of the cold front. Winds are forecast
to diminish below Gale Force Sat morning. Seas currently near 8-9
ft in the lee of the cold front will build to 10-14 ft across the
central and SW Gulf through through the weekend. The front will
reach from southern Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sat
evening, bringing strong to near- gale N to NE winds into the
northeastern and central Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale-force are
possible in the central Gulf Sat evening through Sun, and the
eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for
more details on these SPECIAL FEATURES.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W then continues southwestward to 02N21W. The
ITCZ continues westward from 02N21W to 04N37W to the Amazon Delta,
Brazil. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of both the Monsoon
Trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

Outside of the Gale Warning area and ahead of the cold front
described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, moderate to locally
fresh S winds and 4-7 ft seas are analyzed in the central and
eastern sections of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Panama
City, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by this evening. Winds to
gale force will follow the front over the far western Gulf off the
coast of Mexico. The front will slowly move across the Gulf
through late Sun, spreading strong to near- gale N to NE winds and
rough seas into the east-central and central Gulf. Frequent gusts
to gale-force are possible at the central Gulf late Sat afternoon
through Sun, and at the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night. As the
front continues southeastward passing through the Yucatan Channel
and Florida Straits on Sun night, both winds and seas should
gradually subside across the Gulf on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak cold front extends from the Lesser Antilles near 17N63W to
16N71W. Fresh NE winds are noted north of the boundary, with fresh
to strong E winds south of Hispaniola and within the Mona Passage.
Seas in these areas are 6-8 ft, locally 9 ft in the Mona Passage.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail over the Caribbean,
except in the lee of Cuba where the latest scatterometer data
shows fresh trades. Seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will sink farther southward
through tonight to near 15N on Sat before gradually dissipating by
Sun. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds behind the front will persist
across the north-central and northeastern basin, including the
Windward and Mona Passages through Sat night. Large N swell will
impact both passages and the northeastern basin through Sat night
before subsiding Sun. Another cold front is expected to enter the
northwestern basin Mon then stall and dissipate Mon night, causing
seas to build near the Yucatan Channel. Fresh easterly winds
north of Colombia will also pulse to strong every night through
Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Significant Swell Event.

A cold front extends from 31N44W to the Leeward Islands near
17N63W. The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to locally
strong NW winds behind the front and fresh to strong S winds ahead
of the front, with strongest winds along the front north of 25N.
In addition to the area of 12 ft seas described in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section, seas greater than 8 ft are north of a line from
31N35W to the Leeward Islands to the Turks and Caicos to 31N70W.
In the far W Atlantic, 1023 mb high pressure is centered near
28N71W, accompanied by gentle anticyclonic flow and 4-7 ft seas in
this region.

In the central and eastern Atlantic, an area of 8-12 ft seas in N
to NW swell is north of a line from 31N44W to 18N40W to the Cabo
Verde Islands to 22N17W near the coast of Western Sahara. Seas to
12 ft were captured on a recent satellite altimeter pass.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, gentle to
moderate trades prevail with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, 1022 mb high pressure is centered between the
northern Bahamas and Bermuda, building behind a cold front
currently south of the area moving into the northern Leeward
Islands. Fresh to strong NW to NE winds behind the front will
continue across the waters east of 60W, and northeast of the
Virgin Islands through this morning. Large N swell behind this
front will spread southward to 20N and east of 70W. The next cold
front is expected to move off northeastern Florida on Sat,
bringing fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri evening
through Sat. This front is expected to reach from 31N72W to
Florida Straits late Sun before stalling.

$$
Mahoney
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