[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extending from SE of Bermuda
to across the Central Bahamas to western Cuba will continue
moving SE, reaching from 31N59W to central Cuba this morning,
from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from
20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to gale-
force northerly winds immediately behind the front will move
through the Central and SE Bahamas tonight, and then shift across
the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu and Thu night.
Large N swell will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft or
greater N of 23N and E of 73W.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell, with significant
wave heights of 12 to 15 ft based on altimeter data, is occurring
N of 23N between 35W and 50W. This swell event is generated by a
frontal boundary sweeping through the region, with the cold front
currently extending from 31N32W to 26N38W. A stationary front
continues from 26N38W to 21N50W to 23N60W. Mainly moderate winds
are on both sides of the front, generally north of 28N between
30W and 45W. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft across the
forecast waters by this morning.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 09N13W then continues SW to near 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from
04N20W to 01N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 18W and 28W. Similar
convection is also seen from 00N to 03N between 42W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from western Cuba to
near Poza, Rica Mexico. High pressure dominates the remainder of
the Gulf waters N of the front and the State of Florida. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the front, mainly
from 21N to 24N between 87W and 93W, and in the Yucatan Peninsula
where a surface trough is analyzed. Gusty winds to gale force may
occur in association with this strong convective activity. A mid-
level trough is helping to induce this convection. N of the front,
fresh to strong NE winds are noted with seas of 8 to 11 ft over
the western Gulf based on altimeter data, and 4 to 7 ft over the
eastern Gulf per buoys observations. A recent scatterometer pass
provided observations of fresh to strong northerly winds to the NW
of the Yucatan Peninsula extending southward across the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere south of the front, light to gentle
winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are noted.

For the forecast, the stationary front will be reinforced with a
surge of fresh to strong NE winds, pushing the front SE of the
basin today. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf by tonight
become fresh to strong Thu and spread to the entire Gulf Thu
night, ahead of the next cold front. This next front will move
into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida
to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Gale-force N winds
are briefly possible behind the front offshore the upper Mexican
waters late Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri
evening and night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin with
a ridge from the Atlantic reaching the NE Caribbean. This is
resulting in light to gentle winds over the NE Caribbean, including
Puerto Rico and regional waters. Fresh to locally strong trades
are within about 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate
wind prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where light and
variable winds are observed. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in
the south-central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

A cold front has reached western Cuba, producing scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Similar convective activity is noted near the
Honduras/Nicaragua border. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture,
with isolated to scattered passing showers are seen, more concentrated
over the Greater Antilles.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern is yielding below normal
tradewinds across most of the basin. However winds will increase
slightly through Wed, with fresh winds pulsing to strong winds at
night in the south-central and southeast portions. Moderate
northerly swell moving through the Atlantic waters and NE Caribbean
Passages will gradually subside through Thu morning. A cold front
is forecast to sink S-SE across the northwestern basin Wed and
Wed night, reach from the Windward Passage to Belize on Thu, and
then from the northern Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean
along 16N Fri. Strong winds will follow the front, locally higher
in Atlantic passages, with large N swell spreading through
Atlantic passages early Fri through Sat. Another front may stall
near or just N of the Yucatan Channel for the end of the upcoming
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to across the Central Bahamas
to western Cuba. Currently, seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted per altimeter
data behind the front and E of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N winds
are N of 27N between 77W and the E coast of Florida. Gale force winds
are expected to develop behind this front by tonight into Thu morning.
Please, see the Special Features section above for more details.

A second cold front stretches from 31N32W to 26N38W where it becomes
stationary to 26N38W to 21N50W to 23N60W. A swell event, with seas
in excess of 12 ft, follows the front. Please, see the Special
Features section above for more information.

A 1021 mb high pressure is located between the fronts near 27N48W.
Another high pressure center of 1023 mb is NE of the Madeira
Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are noted
between the coast of Western Saharan and the Canary Islands.
Mainly moderate trades are blowing across the tropical Atlantic
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from SE of
Bermuda to across the Central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida
will continue moving SE, reaching from 31N59W to central Cuba this
morning. Please, see the Special Features section above for more
information. Yet another cold front is expected to move off
Florida this weekend, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead
of it Fri night through Sat. That front is expected to reach from
31N70W to S Florida before stalling.

$$
GR
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