[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will extend from 31N52W to
25N63W to 20.5N74W on Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop
in the vicinity of the front from 21N-26N between 65W-75W. Seas
will range from 8-11 ft within the strongest winds. These
conditions will follow the front as it moves E through Fri.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell, with significant
wave heights of 12 to 15 ft, is occurring N of 25N between
35W-66W. The highest seas of 14 ft and above are occurring N of
28N between 35W-45W. This swell was generated by a frontal system
sweeping through the region, with the cold front currently
extending from 31N33W to 23N44W. Moderate to fresh winds are
occurring on both sides of the front, generally north of 28N
between 31W-45W. The area of seas 12 ft will subside below 12 ft
by Wed afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 11N15W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 30W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the basin from the Straits of
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are
noted N of the front, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are south of the front. Scattered
moderate convection is along and N of the front and W of 90W.

For the forecast, the stationary front will get reinforced with a
surge of fresh to strong winds tonight allowing it to push SE of
the basin Wed. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf by Wed
night, become fresh to strong Thu and spread to the entire Gulf
Thu night, ahead of the next cold front. This next front will move
into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay,
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Gale-force N
winds are briefly possible behind the front offshore the upper
Mexican waters late Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz
Fri evening and night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean
waters. This is resulting in moderate to locally fresh winds over
the eastern and central Caribbean as well as in the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft
range in the area of moderate to fresh winds, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will increase slightly through Wed, with
fresh winds pulsing to strong winds at night in the south-central
and southeast portions. Moderate northerly swell will move through
the Atlantic waters and NE Caribbean Passages tonight then
gradually subside through Thu morning. A cold front is forecast to
sink S-SE across the northwestern basin Wed and Wed night, reach
from the Windward Passage to Belize on Thu, and then from the
northern Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean along 16N Fri.
Strong winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic
passages, with Large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages
through early Fri through Sat. Another front may stall near or
just N of the Yucatan Channel for the end of the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on the
Gale Warning and the Significant Swell event.

Aside from the conditions and features associated with the areas
mentioned above, a cold front extends from 31N64W to the Straits
of Florida. Fresh to strong winds prevail within 180 nm east of
the front north of 28N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere
within 120 nm east of the front as well as west of the front.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 20N. Gentle to moderate
winds are also N of 20N and east of 25W, reaching strong speeds
within 120 nm of the coast of Africa. Seas greater than 8 ft cover
the discussion waters N of 15N between 4W and 62W, and N of 25N
between 33W and 77W. Seas of 4-7 ft are found elsewhere, reaching
8 ft off in the areas of strong winds off the coast of Africa.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue moving
SE, reaching from 31N59W to central Cuba Wed morning, from near
29N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W
through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to gale-force
northerly winds immediately behind the front will move through the
Central and SE Bahamas Wed night, and then shift across the SE
waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu and Thu night. Another
set of large N swell will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft
or greater N of 23N and E of 73W. Yet another cold front is
expected to move off Florida this weekend, with fresh to strong
southerly winds ahead of it Fri night through Sat. That front may
reach from 31N70W to S Florida while possibly stalling.

$$
AL
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