[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning and Swell Event:

A cold front passes through 31N41W to 24N50W, 20N60W, through
the northern one-third of Hispaniola, to SE Cuba. The front is
stationary from SE Cuba, through the northern sections of Cuba,
to 24N81W in the Straits of Florida. A surface trough continues
to 27N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 210 nm to the ESE of the cold front
from 22N northward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within
120 nm on either side of the rest of the frontal boundary.
SW gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 15 feet
to 19 feet, are from 27N to 31N between 36W and 48W.
W gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 17 feet
to 23 feet, are from 30.5N to 31N between 48.5W and 57W.
Strong and faster cyclonic wind flow is to the north of the
line: 31N30W 19N49W 19N60W 30N75W. Mostly moderate or slower
wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
The sea heights are 8 feet and higher, in general, to the
north of the line: at 20N and the coast of Africa, 17N29W,
18N50W, 20N70W. The sea heights range from 11 feet to
19 feet to the north of the line: 31N24W 28N35W 22N49W
22N62W, to the Florida east coast along 27N. An exception
is moderate and fresh winds from 10N northward from 28W
eastward, and from 10N southward between 30W and 54W.
The sea heights in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean
range from 4 feet to 8 feet. The 24-hour rainfall total
in inches, during the period that ended at 09/1200 UTC,
according to the Pan American and Precipitation Tables,
was 0.13 in Bermuda.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 06N11W, to 05N14W, to 05N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N24W, crossing the Equator along 28W, to
03N39W, to 01N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes from SE Cuba, through the northern
sections of Cuba, to 24N81W in the Straits of Florida.
A surface trough continues to 27N86W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are possible within 120 nm on either
side of the frontal boundary.

A second stationary front passes through southern Mississippi,
to southern Alabama, to the Florida Panhandle, to 28N84W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 29N northward between 84W and 88W.

The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 5 feet in
the south central sections and in the SW corner. The sea
heights have been ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere.
The wind speeds have been mostly moderate to some fresh
in the Gulf of Mexico.

A weakening frontal trough extending from near 29N86W to the
Straits of Florida will dissipate by this evening. Moderate
east winds are east of the trough, except for fresh east winds
in the Straits of Florida. These winds diminish some by early
this evening, but remain at fresh speeds in the Straits of
Florida through tonight. A cold front is forecast to enter the
Gulf region Fri and move over the northern Gulf waters by Fri
night, reaching from near Tampa Bay, FL to Galveston, Texas by
Sat morning before dissipating late Sat. A third cold front will
likely enter the NW Gulf Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is approaching the Caribbean Sea from the
north, and from the Atlantic Ocean. SW winds are on the
southern side of the cold front. NW winds are on the
northern side of the cold front. Moderate to fresh winds
are from 15N to 20N between 57W and 64W. Mostly moderate
to some fresh NE winds are in the southern half of the
central one-third of the area. Moderate NE winds are in
the NW corner of the area. Expect gentle to moderate
winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet,
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A cold front has reached the Greater Antilles and
vicinity waters today. It is followed by fresh to strong
northerly winds. Scattered showers are along the front. A
significant swell event is following the front leading to
hazardous marine conditions over the Atlantic waters and in the
northeast Caribbean passages. The front will reach from the
Leeward Islands to Jamaica to the western tip of Cuba on Fri
before dissipating Fri night. The swell event also will
propagate across the waters E of Leeward Islands late Thu into
Fri. Gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the remainder
of the forecast period, except for moderate to fresh winds in
the southeastern and south-central Caribbean and fresh to strong
winds in the Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Mon morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about
the ongoing GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, and the SWELL EVENT,
in the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 31N17W. A surface ridge
extends from the 1024 mb high pressure center, to 20N34W.

All the wind speed and sea height information is in the
SPECIAL FEATURES section.

A cold front has reached the far southeastern waters.
The front is followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds E of 75W.
These winds will increase to strong to near gale-force as they
shift to the northeast forecast waters by Fri afternoon. A
significant swell event in the wake of the front is bringing
seas of 12 to 19 ft to the waters N of 12N and E of 65W and also
N of 26N between 65W and 73W. Looking ahead, the next cold front
is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast by Fri
afternoon, bringing strong to near gale force winds to waters
east of Florida. This system will move eastward across the area
during the weekend, with minimal gale-force winds possible ahead
of the front.

$$
mt/ja
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