[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold front
extends from 31N41W across Turks and Caicos to the Straits of
Florida. Gale force winds remain on both sides of the front,
mainly north of 28N between 37W and 57W. The maximum significant
wave height is 20 ft. Rough seas cover the majority of the west
and central subtropical North Atlantic. Seas in excess of 12 ft
are currently observed between 35W and 74W, reaching as far south
as 21N. Seas in excess of 8 ft are currently observed between 15W
and 80W, reaching as far south as 18N. The front will continue
advancing, reaching the Caribbean by Fri morning. Winds will
slowly decrease, becoming sub-gale by Fri. The swell from this
event will continue to propagate SE and gradually abate through
the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to
00N30W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S
to 03N between 20W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail of a cold front extends across the Florida Straits. The
remainder gulf is under the influence of a surface ridge that is
supporting moderate winds in the far eastern basin and moderate to
locally fresh return flow in the SW gulf where seas are up to 6
ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach Havana, Cuba later
this morning before dissipating tonight. Fresh easterly winds will
briefly follow the front. Another cold front is forecast to enter
the Gulf region Fri and move over the northern Gulf waters by Fri
night, reaching from near Tampa Bay, FL to Galveston, TX by Sat
morning before dissipating late Sat. A third cold front will
likely enter the NW Gulf Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong winds
and building seas are expected in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Surface ridging extending across the Gulf of Mexico into the NW
Caribbean is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas to 3 ft
in the western half of the basin while low pressure associated
with a cold front extending across the central Atlantic is
supporting gentle winds elsewhere along with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach the Greater Antilles
today, producing fresh northerly winds and showers. A significant
swell event will follow the front, creating hazardous marine
conditions across the Atlantic waters and the NE Caribbean
passages. The front will extend from the Leeward Islands to
Jamaica to the western tip of Cuba on Fri before dissipating Fri
night. The swell event will also propagate across the waters E of
Leeward Islands late Thu into Fri. Gentle to moderate winds will
dominate the remainder of the forecast period, except for moderate
to fresh winds in the SE and south-central Caribbean, and fresh
to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast
waters this week.

Outside of the gale force winds associated with the cold front
extending across the central and western Atlantic, NW winds are
generally fresh to near gale-force behind the front. Fresh to
near gale-force SW winds are observed extending to 31W ahead of
the front. Gentle to moderate winds are found in the deep tropics
and eastern Atlantic as a high pressure ridge extends from the
Canary Islands to the Cape Verde Islands. Seas are 6-8 ft in
these areas.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near gale force NW winds
will persist N of 27N and E of 65W through Fri. A significant
swell event will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 20 ft
covering most of the waters N of 25N and E of 74W. Seas of 12 ft
will reach as far south as 22N later this morning. Looking ahead,
the next cold front is forecast to move off the southeast U.S. by
Fri afternoon, brining strong to near gale force winds to waters
east of Florida. This system will move eastward across the area
during the weekend, with minimal gale conditions possibly
developing ahead of the front.

$$
Ramos
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