[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold front extends
from 31N48W across the central Bahamas and South Florida into the
NE Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds are currently occurring on
both sides of the front, mainly north of 27N between 42W and 61W.
Seas are currently peaking near 20 ft. Seas in excess of 20 ft are
currently found N of 25N between 41W and 71W. The front will
extend from 31N46W to 26N55W to 23N70W to Miami, FL by this
evening, and then from 31N43W to 23N55W to the N coast of
Hispaniola to Havana, Cuba Thu morning. Gale force winds are
expected to continue through Thu evening, especially ahead of the
front. Seas in excess of 12 ft will reach as far south as 21N on
Thu. By late Thu, the vast majority of the west and central
Atlantic east of the Bahamas and north of 17N will be impacted by
rough seas in excess of 8 ft while very rough to high seas persist
in the subtropical central Atlantic. The swell from this event
will slowly subside during the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details
on the gale and swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to
01S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between
20W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the NE Gulf. High pressure prevails
elsewhere, anchored by 1021 mb high centered near 28N91W. Light to
gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range
over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Havana, Cuba to
near Mobile, Alabama by Thu morning before dissipating by Thu
night. Fresh easterly winds will briefly follow the front. Another
cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf region Fri and move over
the northern Gulf waters by Fri night, reaching from near Tampa
Bay, FL to Galveston, TX by Sat morning before dissipating late
Sat. A third cold front will likely enter the NW Gulf Sun night
into Mon. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in
the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5
ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach the Greater Antilles on
Thu, producing fresh northerly winds and showers. A significant
swell event will follow the front, creating hazardous marine
conditions across the Atlantic waters and the NE Caribbean
passages. The front will extend from the Leeward Islands to
Jamaica to the western tip of Cuba on Fri before dissipating Fri
night. The swell event will also propagate across the waters E of
Leeward Islands late Thu into Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast
waters this week.

A cold front extends from 31N48W across the central Bahamas and
South Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Aside from the gale
force winds and large seas discussed in the Special Features
section above, fresh to near- gale force winds are found over much
of the waters N of 20N and W of 40W. Gentle to moderate winds are
found elsewhere. Seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a
line from 30N80W to 21N53W to 30N20W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, aside from the winds and seas
associated to the cold front, the next cold front is forecast to
move off the southeast U.S. by Fri afternoon, brining strong to
near gale force winds to waters east of Florida. This system will
move eastward across the area during the weekend, with minimal
gale conditions possibly developing ahead of the front.

$$
AL
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