[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning and Swell Event:

A cold front passes through 31N54W to 27N60W 26N70W, beyond 28.5N
at the Florida east coast. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is
from 330 nm to 440 nm to the southeast of the cold front.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
moderate rainshowers are from 20N northward between 40W and the
SE U.S.A. coast. Strong and faster cyclonic wind flow is from 23N
northward between 40W and 70W. Expect gale-force NW winds, and sea
heights that range from 16 feet to 20 feet, from 29N northward
between the cold front and 70W. Expect SW gale-force winds, and
sea heights that range from 14 feet to 18 feet, from 27N northward
between 48W and the cold front. The sea heights have been ranging
from 12 feet to 15 feet from 26N northward between 40W and 50W.
The sea heights are 8 feet or higher in general, from 23N
northward between 50W and 70W. The sea heights are ranging from
6 feet to 8 feet from 20N southward between 40W and 60W. The sea
heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet from 70W westward
from the Bahamas northward, and from 1 foot to 3 feet from the
Bahamas southward. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, during
the period that ended at 08/1200 UTC, according to the Pan
American and Precipitation Tables, was 0.62 in Bermuda.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 06N11W, to 05N19W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N20W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 01S33W,
to 01S40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 06N southward from 44W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NE Florida coast near 28.5N, from
the Atlantic Ocean, into the NE Gulf of Mexico, beyond SE
Mississippi. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side
of the cold front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 28N
northward between 84W and the coast of SE Mississippi.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N88W. Light winds are
elsewhere from 23N northward between 83W and 93W, away from the
cold front. Moderate to fresh SE winds are to the south of the
area of the light winds and the 1019 mb high pressure center,
between 85W and 94W. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 4
feet in the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights mostly are ranging
from 1 foot to 3 feet from 90W eastward. The sea heights have been
ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet from 90W westward.

MVFR conditions, and isolated IFR conditions, are in the coastal
waters and the coastal plains and the inland areas from the deep
south of Texas to Mississippi. VFR conditions/fairer skies are
elsewhere in the U.S.A. Gulf of Mexico coastal areas/coastal
plains.

A cold front is reaching the NE Gulf today, and will extend from
Havana, Cuba to near Mobile, Alabama by Thu afternoon, before
dissipating by late Thu night. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
forecast in the far E Gulf, east of the front. Another weak cold
front is likely to reach the northern Gulf Coast Fri and move over
the northern Gulf waters by Fri night, before dissipating Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the south central
sections of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate NE winds are in the
southern half of the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate NE
winds have been in the NW corner, and on either side of Jamaica
from Jamaica to the SE half of Cuba. Light to gentle winds are in
the remainder of the area. The sea heights have been ranging from
4 feet to 7 feet from 15N southward from 77W westward. The sea
heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet in the eastern
one-third of the area. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to
4 feet in the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights have been ranging
from 1 foot to 3 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail across most of the
basin today due to a weak pressure gradient as an Atlantic cold
front sinks southward toward the Caribbean islands. The cold front
is forecast to reach the Greater Antilles on Thu, then extend
from the Leeward Islands to Jamaica to the western tip of Cuba
early Fri before dissipating Fri night. The front will bring large
N swell through the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic
waters beginning Thu and lasting into the weekend. Also, fresh N
to NE winds are expected behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about
the ongoing GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, and the SWELL EVENT, in the
Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.

A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 30N13W. A surface ridge
extends from the 1021 mb high pressure center, that is near
30N13W, to 23N26W, to 13N40W. A dissipating stationary front
passes through 31N30W, to 25N41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is within 210 nm to the ESE of the line 22N50W 31N30W.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward from
the dissipating stationary front eastward. Light anticyclonic
winds are within 120 nm on either side of the line from the
1021 mb high pressure center to 24N30W. Moderate N to NE winds
are to the south of the light anticyclonic wind flow of the
surface ridge, between 20W and 36W. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are to the north of the light anticyclonic wind flow between
20W and 30W. Moderate to fresh winds are in much of the area that
is between 30W and 46W. The winds are from the SE and S from 16N
northward, and from the NE from 16N southward. Moderate to fresh
N to NE winds are between 20W and 50W from 16N southward, in
general. Light winds are from 10N to 18N between 50W and 60W.
Mostly moderate NE winds are from 10N southward between 50W and
60W. Moderate S winds are from 17N to 20N between 50W and 60W.
The sea heights in general are 6 feet or higher from 40W
eastward. The sea heights specifically range from 8 feet to
11 feet from 18N northward between 30W and 40W, and from 27N
northward between 20W and 30W.

A cold front extends from 31N53W to 26N70W to N Florida. Gale
force winds prevail on both sides of the front, mainly N of 28N
between 55W and 67W. The front will reach from 25N55W to SE
Florida by this evening, and will reach the N coasts of Hispaniola
and Cuba Thu morning. Gale force winds will continue on either
side of the front today, mainly N of 28N and E of 67W. Winds are
forecast to diminish below gale force over the NE waters by late
this afternoon, but strong NW winds will persist N of 27N and E of
65W through Fri. A significant NW to N swell event will follow
the front, with seas of 12 to 21 ft covering most of the waters N
of 25N and E of 74W by early this afternoon. Seas of 12 ft will
reach as far south as 21N Thu. Looking ahead, the next cold front
is forecast to move off the southeast U.S. by Fri afternoon,
brining strong to near gale force winds to waters east of Florida.
This system will move eastward across the area during the
weekend, with gale force winds possibly developing N of 29N and E
of 70W.

$$
mt/gr
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