[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas of 12 to 15 ft in long
period N to NE swell continue to affect the waters N of 26N and
between 31W and 48W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are also noted north of
19N and E of 62W. Seas are forecast to gradually subside below 12
ft by tonight. However, another swell event will enter the
forecast waters by Sat afternoon with seas building to 12 to 18 ft
N of 27N and E of 55W. As this swell event shifts E of 40W by Sun
evening, a third swell event will reach the forecast region with
seas in the 12 to 16 ft range propagating across the waters N of
29N between 45W and 63W. These swell events are the result of
deepening low pressure systems moving eastward across the Atlantic
Ocean N of the forecast area.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sat. Winds
will pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
through this morning, with seas to 12 ft. Fresh to strong winds
are expected near the coast of Colombia afterward.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to near-gale SE to S winds
with frequent gusts to gale force prevail across most of the
basin, ahead of a cold front that currently extends from 29N95W to
26N97W. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central
Bay of Campeche this evening, before stalling on Sat. The
frequent gusts to gale force are expected through this evening,
while gale force NW to N winds will develop offshore Tampico and
Veracruz later today through tonight. Seas will build to 9 to 12
ft with the southerly flow ahead of the front today. Seas of 8 to
10 ft are expected in the wake of the front. Winds and seas will
subside by Sat afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W, then continues southwestward to 07N17W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 03N between 24W-45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read
the Special Features section above for details.

A cold front extends across the NW gulf from 29N95W to 26N97W. A
surface ridge prevails across the eastern portion of the basin.
The pressure gradient between these features supports strong to
near gale SE winds across most of the basin, with seas of 8 to 10
ft. Strong winds and seas to 9 ft are noted in the Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, a cold front will continue moving east across
the basin. Please, see the Special Features section above for
more information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia
through this morning. Please read the Special Features section
for more details.

Satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong winds are
across the central Caribbean and over the western Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate
to fresh winds are over the remainder of the Caribbean, except in
the lee of Cuba, where gentle winds are noted. Seas are 8 to 11
ft over the south-central Caribbean and 7 to 9 ft across the
remainder of the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras and
Yucatan Channel. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere, except in
the lee of Cuba, where seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail. Similar sea
heights are in the Windward Passage building to 4 ft between
Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian diurnal low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to
near-gale SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through
Sat morning, spreading across the northwestern Caribbean through
the Yucatan Channel through today. Moderate long-period N swell
will impact the northeastern Caribbean passages through this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the
ongoing significant swell event, and the systems supporting
these marine conditions.

High pressure of 1018 mb centered over the central subtropical
Atlantic extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, the Bahamas,
and the Florida peninsula. Moderate to fresh SW winds are on the
western periphery of the ridge north of 28N and west of 57W to
the east coast of FL. The high allows for gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow elsewhere over the western-central basin.

To the east, a cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N33W
and extends SW to 23N51W. Some shower activity is observed within
240 nm ahead of the front north of 28N. E of the front, a 1021 mb
high pressure is west of the Canary Islands and dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Seas over 8 ft are
propagating across most of the waters E of 63W. For more
information, please see the Special Features section. Seas of 5
to 7 ft prevail W of 63W except for 1 to 3 ft across the offshore
waters of E Florida and in the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging prevails across
the area, with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds. Southerly
winds will increase to fresh to strong today ahead of a cold front
forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast tonight. Afterward,
fresh to strong SW winds will progress eastward this weekend,
remaining north of 29N as a surface ridge settles along 24/25N.

$$
ERA
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