[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Seas of 12 to 15 ft in
long period N swell continue to affect the waters N of 25N and
between 30W and 50W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are also noted north of
27N and E of 27W. Seas are forecast to gradually subside to less
than 12 ft by Fri night. However, another swell event will enter
the forecast waters by Sat afternoon with seas building to 12 to
18 ft N of 27N and E of 50W. As this swell event shifts E of 35W
by Sun evening, a third swell event will reach the forecast
region with seas in the 12 to 16 ft range propagating across the
waters N of 29N between 45W and 62W. These swell events are the
result of deepening low pressure systems moving eastward across
the Atlantic Ocean N of the forecast area.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sat. Winds will
pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight.
Seas will build to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia afterward.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Fresh to strong SE to S winds will
increase to strong to near-gale force this evening, ahead of a
cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight. The
front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of
Campeche Fri evening before stalling and weakening later Fri
night into early Sat. Near-gale force S winds, with frequent
gusts to gale force, will precede the front across the north-
central Gulf tonight, and eastern Gulf late tonight through Fri
morning. Near gale force NW winds are expected behind the front
over the NW Gulf tonight. Expect minimal gale force NW to N winds
offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Winds and seas should
subside by Sat. Seas will build to 9 to 12 ft with the southerly
flow ahead of the front by Fri morning. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are
expected in the wake of the front.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea near 10N14W, then continues southwestward to 07N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 00N26W to 03S40W. Scattered
moderate convection emerged off the coast of Africa, from 00N to
06N between 12W and the west coast of Africa.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read
the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE
Mexico supports fresh to strong southerly winds across the
western and central Gulf, as well as the Yucatan Channel, with
seas of 6 to 8 ft, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the
eastern Gulf with seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the Gulf region tonight
with increasing winds and building seas on either side of the
front. Please, see the Special Features section for more
information.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia
tonight. Please read the Special Features section for more
details.

Satellite-derived wind data provide observations of strong to
near gale force winds within 90 nm offshore N Colombia. Fresh to
strong winds are across the central Caribbean and over the
western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to fresh winds are over the remainder of the
Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba, where gentle winds are
noted. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over the south-central Caribbean and 6
to 8 ft across the remainder of the central Caribbean and in the
Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted
elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba, where seas of 1 to 3 ft
prevail. Similar sea heights are in the Windward Passage building
to 4 ft between Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian diurnal low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sat. Winds will
pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Strong to
near-gale SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through
Sat morning, spreading across the northwestern Caribbean through
the Yucatan Channel through Fri. Moderate long-period N swell will
impact the northeastern Caribbean passages through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the
ongoing significant swell event, and the systems supporting
these marine conditions.

High pressure of 1020 mb centered over the central subtropical
Atlantic extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, the
Bahamas, and the state of Florida. Moderate to fresh SW winds
are on the western periphery of the ridge north of 28N and west
of 65W to the east coast of FL. The high allows for gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow elsewhere over the western-central
basin.

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N36W and extends
SW to 25N45W to 23N53W, where it becomes stationary to 22N63W.
Some shower activity is observed within 240 nm ahead of the
front north of 28N. E of the front, a 1023 mb high pressure is
west of the Canary Islands and dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region. Seas over 8 ft are propagating across
most of the waters E of 65W. For more information, please see
the Special Features section. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail W of 65W
except for 1 to 3 ft across the offshore waters of E Florida and
in the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging prevails across
the area, with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds. Southerly
winds will increase to fresh tonight east of Florida and become
strong on Fri ahead of a cold front forecast to exit the U.S.
southeast coast Fri night. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds
will progress eastward this weekend, remaining north of 29N as an
east-west oriented surface ridge settles along 24/25N.

$$
Mora
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