[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The remnant low of Cindy is near 23N61W,
with a minimal central pressure of 1012 mb. This low is completely
exposed due to strong SW shear aloft. Scattered shower and
thunderstorms are 45 to 60 nm to the east of the center. An
earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated winds to gale force
to the northeast of the center. These winds will be diminishing
through the morning, but were probably still reaching minimal gale
force at 06 UTC. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicate
rough to very rough seas to the northeast of the low as well.
These seas will gradually diminish through Tue as the low weakens
into a trough and shift northward.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 13N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from
09N to 13N between 47W and 51W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W, from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N
to 18N between 80W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N25W to 08N35W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N35W to 08N45W, and from 07N47W to 06N54W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm
either side of the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A line of thunderstorms is moving into the coastal waters of
Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle,
associated with a mid to upper level disturbance in the NW flow
aloft. Strong gusts, locally rough seas, and frequent lightning
may be associated with this line of showers and thunderstorms.

Elsewhere, weak 1014 mb high pressure is centered over the east-
central Gulf, with a surface ridge extending to the Texas coast. A
weak trough is analyzed over the southwest Gulf. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across the
basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure extending from the eastern
Gulf to the Texas coast will move little Fri. Fresh winds will
pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Fri night
as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. A weak
trough and frontal boundary will move across north Florida through
mid week, but have little impact on the Gulf weather.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Sentinel-3a altimeter satellite pass from 03 UTC confirmed seas
were still reaching 8 to 9 ft at that time in the deeper water
near the reef off northeast Nicaragua. These seas are related to
the tropical wave along 82W that is itself the remnants of Bret. A
concurrent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
fresh E winds in this area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
were also active there as well. Gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft are
noted over the northwest Caribbean. Fresh trade winds are noted
off the coast of Venezuela, with moderate winds elsewhere with 4
to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the thunderstorms and locally rough seas along
a tropical wave associated with the remnants of Bret will
dissipate later this morning between Jamaica and northeast
Nicaragua as the tropical wave shifts west. Farther east, winds
and seas will increase slightly by mid week east of the Leeward
Islands as another tropical wave moves into the region from the
tropical Atlantic. Looking ahead, strong winds and rough seas are
likely over the eastern Caribbean Thu and Fri as the tropical wave
moves through the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the gale warning near the remnant low of Cindy.

A sharp upper trough extends from off the Carolinas to South
Florida. Divergent flow aloft is supporting a few showers and
thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. A second, broader mid to
upper trough reaches from the north-central Atlantic to the
southeast of Bermuda to the southern Bahamas. Divergent SW flow
aloft on the southeast side of this trough is both shearing the
remnant low of Cindy, but also supporting the scattered showers
and thunderstorms to the east of the exposed low. Farther south,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the tropical
Atlantic west of 45W, related to the tropical wave moving toward
the Caribbean. A broad ridge is noted elsewhere. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds over the tropical
Atlantic west of 35W, with 6 to 8 ft seas, and moderate winds and
4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds may be reaching gale force
near the remnant low of Cindy, centered at 23N61W. These winds
will diminish through the morning as the low weakens to a trough,
but rough seas will persist near the trough as it moves northward
through Tue. Elsewhere, gentle SW winds off northeast Florida will
increase through Tue night ahead of a trough over the southeast
U.S. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase by mid week
southeast of Bermuda as low pressure develops in that area.

$$
Christensen
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