[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, at 26/0300 UTC, is near
22.8N 60.0W. Cindy is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 12 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to
45 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 60 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet:
within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within
60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of
the center in the SW quadrant; and within 30 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. Expect SE to S winds ranging
from 25 knots to 35 knots, and sea heights that range
from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 21N to 24N between 58W
and 60W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 300 nm of the center in the
E semicircle. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within
480 nm of the center in the N semicircle. No hazards
are affecting land. The last advisory about CINDY was
published a few hours ago. CINDY is dissipating more
and more.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest T.S. Cindy Forecast/Advisory and the Public
Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from
13N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N
southward between the 44W/45W tropical wave and 60W.
The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from the ITCZ
to 22N between 37W and 50W. Strong NE winds are from 12N
to 16N between 42W and 48W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W 08N30W and 08N44W.
The ITCZ is along 08N46W, to 05N52W near the coast of
French Guiana. Precipitation: disorganized widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N
southward from the 44W/45W tropical wave eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-to-SW oriented middle level to upper level trough
passes through central Florida. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N
northward between 70W and Florida.

A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 27N88W,
just to the NE of the central sections of the Gulf
of Mexico. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in
much of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are
reaching 3 feet in the coastal waters of Mexico.
The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the coastal
waters of the middle Texas Gulf coast. Moderate
anticyclonic winds are in the western half of the
area. Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere.

Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate, are from 22N southward from
87W westward. A broad NW-to-SE oriented surface trough
is in the interior sections of Mexico, passing through
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico toward
the Yucatan Peninsula.

High pressure extending from southwest Florida to
the upper Texas coast will move little through mid week.
Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula
each night through Fri night as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnant of Bret is an 80W/81W tropical wave, that
is from 19N southward. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm on either
side of the tropical wave. The sea heights range from
8 feet to 10 feet in the waters that are from Colombia
to Jamaica and Haiti between 70W and 82W. The comparatively
highest heights of 10 feet are along 80W and even with
NE Nicaragua. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet
to the east of the area that is around the tropical wave.
The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.
Mostly fresh to some strong winds are from 12N to 19N
between Jamaica and Nicaragua. Moderate winds are
elsewhere from 11N to 20N from Jamaica westward. Gentle
winds are in the remainder of the area that is from
Jamaica westward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
from Jamaica eastward.

One upper level trough is in the western parts of the
Caribbean Sea, from the 80W/81W tropical wave northward.
A second upper level trough extends from the central
sections of the Caribbean Sea northward, beyond Hispaniola.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is
is in the waters that are between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

The monsoon trough is along 9N/10N between 75W in Colombia,
beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered strong
is from 06N to 12N between 73W and 76W, in interior sections
of Colombia, and in its coastal waters.

Strong winds and rough seas associated with the remnants
of Bret will gradually diminish across the southwest
Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds
will persist across the Caribbean thereafter through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
about Tropical Storm Cindy.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean everywhere around T.S. CINDY.

A NE-to-SW oriented middle level to upper level trough
passes through central Florida. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N
northward between 70W and Florida.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
20N northward between 25W and 45W. Precipitation: isolated
to widely scattered moderate is from 25N northward between
27W and 42W.

The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet from 10N to
21N from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 8 feet to the southeast of the line 10N18W 04N40W.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong northerly winds are from 17N
to 21N from 20W eastward. Fresh winds, in general, are from
10N to 28N from 60W eastward, and from 24N northward from
25W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 28N
northward from 60W eastward, and elsewhere from 60W eastward.
Moderate or slower winds are from T.S. Cindy westward.

The remnant low of Cindy is near 22.8N 60.0W 1011 mb
at 11 PM EDT, moving NW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Cindy will dissipate on
Mon morning. A gale warning will remain in effect,
associated with the remnant low of Cindy for at least
part of the overnight hours while the low weakens.
Rough seas will persist near the remnants of Cindy
through Mon night. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure
extends from Bermuda SW to the northern Bahamas.

$$
mt/ec
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