[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250950
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cindy is centered near 20.3N 57.2W at 25/0900 UTC
or 370 nm NE of the Lesser Antilles moving NW at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Rough to very rough seas
and scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active
within 180 nm in the northeast semicircle of the center of Cindy.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W, from 13N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N
to 12N between 32W and 36W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. No significant convection is
evident near the wave axis over the Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N35W to 06N45W to 07N52W. Scattered convection is noted
from 06N to 08N between 20W and 27W, and from 07N to 10N between
40W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends from southwest Florida to the
Upper Texas coast. A trough is moving off the west coast of the
Yucatan peninsula. Fresh winds, 3 to 5 ft seas and scattered
showers and thunderstorms are evident near the trough. Gentle to
moderate breezes and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from southwest Florida
to the upper Texas coast will move little through mid week. Fresh
winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through
mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy
conditions over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of Bret are moving through the south-central
Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated this
was an open wave, with a broad area of fresh to strong to winds
over the central Caribbean. Buoy observations confirm combined
seas are 6 to 9 ft there as well. The scatterometer pass indicated
fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are likely 3 to
5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas associated with the
remnant trough of Bret will gradually diminish across the central
and southwest Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will persist across the Caribbean thereafter through mid
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Cindy.

A surface ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic to east-
central Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active
north of 28N and west of 75W off northeast Florida between the
ridge and a stationary front along the coast, and ahead of a mid
to upper level trough over the southeast U.S. Farther east, a
trough extends from weak 1018 mb low pressure near 30N60W to
22N64W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm
east of the trough between 23N and 26N. Fresh trade winds and 6 to
8 ft seas are noted south of 20N, and moderate E to SE winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are evident north of 20N, outside of the area around
Tropical Storm Cindy.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy near 20.3N
57.2W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 18 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Cindy will move to 21.9N 58.8W this
afternoon, 23.7N 60.6W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical
depression near 25.2N 61.7W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue
morning. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north-central
Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun
ahead of T.S. Cindy.

$$
Christensen
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