[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, at 25/0300 UTC, is near
18.7N 55.7W.  Cindy is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 15 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots.
Wind speeds of 50 knots are: within 40 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds
are: within 50 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within
40 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet:
within 105 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 16 feet.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center
in the N quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 180 nm to 420 nm from the center in the
NE quadrant. No hazards are affecting land areas.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is within
360 nm on either side of tropical wave. The sea heights are
ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet within 240 nm to the west of
the 33W/34W tropical wave from 10N to 13N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side
of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 13N17W, to 08N31W. The ITCZ is along 07N35W
06N44W 06N52W. Precipitation: disorganized widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward between
40W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An inland NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from
north central Guatemala, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
of southern Mexico, beyond 19N100W. A NE-to-SW oriented
surface trough is along the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: numerous strong covers the areas that are
from the SE part of the Guatemala surface trough to 20N
between 90W and 95W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder
of the area that is from 24N southward from 85W westward.

A stationary front is passing through Florida from 30N
northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 26N northward from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, to the
lower Texas Gulf coast.

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow with
a trough spans the area that is between the Bahamas and 90W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 20N northward between 76W and NW Cuba.

The sea heights are reaching 2 feet from 90W eastward, in
the offshore waters of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, and to the
south of Louisiana. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet
elsewhere. One exception is for sea heights of 3 feet off
the coast of Mexico near 20N. Broad moderate or slower
anticyclonic wind speeds cover the entire Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper
Texas coast will move little through mid week. Fresh
winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night
through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves
offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is
producing some hazy conditions over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnant of Bret is a 74W/75W surface trough, from
SW Haiti southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is within 270 nm on either side of the surface trough.
The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet near the
coasts of Haiti and Colombia, to 14 feet from 14N to 15N
along 73W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet
elsewhere between Puerto Rico and 80W. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from Puerto Rico
eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet
in the NW corner of the area, and from 3 feet to 4 feet
in the SW corner of the area. Strong to near
gale-force cyclonic winds are between 70W and 78W.
Fresh to strong easterly winds are from 19N southward
between 84W and 87W, to the north of the 85W tropical
wave. Moderate winds are elsewhere from 80W westward.
Moderate NE to E winds are in the remainder of the area
that is from 70W eastward.

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow with
a trough spans the area that is between the Bahamas and 90W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 20N northward between 76W and NW Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 9N75W in Colombia, beyond
NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 90 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough between 76W and 82W.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that
ended at 25/0000 UTC, is 0.79 in Guadeloupe, according to
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables,
MIATPTPAN.

Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are active in the
south-central Caribbean associated with the remnant trough
of Bret, which dissipated earlier this afternoon. However,
strong winds and very rough seas persist over the south
central Caribbean, but will diminish through Sun as the
remnant trough moves across the southwest Caribbean.
Farther east, Tropical Storm Cindy is in the tropical
Atlantic near 18.7N 55.7W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving
NW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Cindy will move well to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands near 20.3N 57.4W by Sun morning, and will
continue moving further north of the area through
mid week while weakening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
about Tropical Storm Cindy.

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow with
a trough spans the area that is between the Bahamas and 90W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 20N northward between 76W and NW Cuba.

A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 29N59W. One part of
a surface trough extends from the 1018 mb low pressure
center to 32N43W. A second part of a surface trough curves
away from the 1018 mb low pressure center to 23N60W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
in the remainder of the area that is from 20N between 30W
and 70W.

Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from the line
31N23W 25N36W 24N50W southward, from T.S. Cindy eastward.
Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet
to 7 feet within 240 nm to the west of the 33W/34W tropical
wave from 10N to 13N. The sea heights range from 6 feet
to 7 feet from 14N to 20N between 20W and the Cabo Verde
Islands. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Cindy near 18.7N 55.7W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt.
Cindy will move to 20.3N 57.4W Sun morning, 22.4N 59.3W Sun
evening, 24.2N 60.7W Mon morning, 25.7N 61.5W Mon evening, and
dissipate Tue morning. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from
the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift northward
through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy.

$$
mt/ec
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