[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bret is centered near 13.1N 71.9W at 24/1500 UTC
or 48 nm NNW of the northern tip of Guajira peninsula moving W at
18 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Recent buoy
observations and altimeter satellite data indicated a broad area
of seas in excess of 12 ft reaching up to 150 nm NE, and 90 NW
quadrants of the center. Areas of rain and gusty winds are
affecting portions of the ABC Islands and NE Colombia. Bret is
barely a tropical cyclone, and it is forecast to dissipate over
the central Caribbean by tonight. Swells generated by Bret will
affect coastal areas adjacent to the central Caribbean Sea today.
These swells could cause life- threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
National Hurricane Center at wed-site
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Bret Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

Tropical Storm Cindy is centered near 16.4N 53.3W at 24/1500 UTC
or 465 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving toward the NW at 17 kt.
This motion will continue over the next couple of day, but at a
slower pace. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Combined seas in excess of 12 ft extend 120 nm to the NE, 60 nm to
the SE, and 75 nm to the NW of the center of Cindy. Recently
visible satellite images show that the low-level center of Cindy
is becoming exposed on the northwest of a small area of moderate
to isolated strong convection. Cindy is beginning to feel the
effects of increased northwesterly shear, and it is likely that
the system has peaked in intensity. Weakening is forecast over the
next several days, and Cindy could become a remnant low or degenerate
into a trough by the middle portion of next week. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at
wed-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest T.S. Cindy Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 28W, S of 14N moving W at around 10 kt.
No significant convection is evident near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 84W, from 17N southward, moving W at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W then continues SW to near 08N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 04N40W to 05N48W. Isolated to scattered
moderate convection can be found from 06N to 09N between 30W and
33W, and from 05N to 08N between 38W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed
over the SW Gulf and extends 23N94W to near Veracruz, Mexico. A
cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is on the E side
of the trough and covers the area from 19N to 21.5N between 92W
and the trough axis. A stationary front extends along the NE Gulf
coast. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is ahead of
the front affecting the Gulf region N of 29N E of 92W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also noted over the SE Gulf and in
the Straits of Florida. A scatterometer data indicate fresh to
strong winds E of the above mentioned trough likely associated
with the convective activity there. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within these winds in the southwest
Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure extending from southwest Florida
to the upper Texas coast will move little through mid week. Fresh
winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through
mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy
conditions over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
T.S. Bret and T.S. Cindy.

The Atlantic ridge reaches the NE Caribbean and the Greater
Antilles. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Bret
supports an area of fresh to strong winds between Dominican
Republic and western Venezuela. This area of winds will move
westward in tandem with Bret through Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds are observed. Outside of Bret, seas are generally 4
to 6 ft, with an area of 6 to 7 ft over the SW Caribbean and seas
of 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bret will move to 13.1N 74.5W
this evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Farther east, Tropical
Storm Cindy will move to 17.8N 55.0W this evening, and reach well
to the northeast of the Leeward Islands near 20.0N 57.4W by Sun
morning. Cindy will continue north of the area through mid week
while weakening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical
Storm Cindy.

A 1016 mb low pressure is located near 28N56W with a surface trough
extending SW to near 24N58W. Another trough extends eastward from
the low center to near to 29N50W to 29N45W. A well defined swirl
of low clouds is noted on visible satellite imagery related to
the low. An area of fresh to strong winds is noted per scatterometer
data within about 180 nm N of the low center due to the pressure
gradient between the low and high pressure of 1027 mb situated
near 36N47W. Another surface trough, remnants of a frontal
boundary runs from 31N32W to 28N40W. A band of mainly low level
clouds is associated with this trough. The aforementioned high
pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters
supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas outside of
the area of Cindy. An area of fresh to strong N to NE winds is
seen from 18N to 22N between the coast of Mauritania and 21W due
to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower
pressure over W Africa. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active E of Florida to about 73W ahead of a mid to upper level
trough approaching the area from the west. An area of showers and
thunderstorms is also noted N of Cindy affecting the waters from
20N to 24N between 47W and 53W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy will move to
17.8N 55.0W this evening, 20.0N 57.4W Sun morning, 21.9N 59.5W Sun
evening, 23.5N 61.3W Mon morning, 25.0N 62.6W Mon evening, and
become post-tropical and move to 26.0N 63.3W Tue morning. Cindy
will weaken to a remnant low near 28.5N 64.5W early Wed.
Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north-central Atlantic
to the Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of
T.S. Cindy.

$$
GR
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