[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bret is centered near 13.1N 69.8W at 24/0900 UTC
or 40 nm NNE of Aruba moving W at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Recent buoy observations and altimeter
satellite data indicated a broad area of seas in excess of 12 ft
reaching up to 180 nm to the north of the center. Numerous showers
and thunderstorms are evident within 120 nm to the northeast and
60 nm to the southwest of the center. Bret continues to move
quickly toward the west, or 270/16 kt, steered by subtropical
ridging over the western Atlantic. Bret is forecast to remain on
this general trajectory during the next several days, with its
remnants reaching Central America on Monday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Cindy is centered near 14.6N 51.2W at 24/0900 UTC
or 590 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving WNW at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Combined seas in excess
of 12 ft extend 90 nm to the northeast and 45 nm to the southwest
of the center of Cindy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted within 120 nm of the center. This convection has been
weakening during the overnight hours. A general west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
few days as Cindy moves along the periphery of a subtropical ridge
to its northeast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 03N to 14N
 moving W at 5 kt. No significant convection is evident near the
wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active
along the coast of Nicaragua near 12N83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau from 11N96W to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W
 to 05N40W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate convection from 05N to
07N between 37W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from southwest Florida to the upper Texas
coast. A stationary front extends along the north Gulf coast. A
scatterometer satellite pass from around 06 UTC indicated fresh to
strong winds over the Bay of Campeche along a surface trough
moving from the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula across the
southwest Gulf. Seas are likely 3 to 5 ft in the southwest Gulf.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the southwest
Gulf as well. Gentle to moderate breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure extending from southwest
Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little through mid
week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each
night from tonight through mid week as a trough develops each
evening and moves offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in
Mexico is producing some hazy conditions over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
T.S. Bret and T.S. Cindy.

Outside of the area around Bret, fresh trade winds and seas to 8
ft are noted over the southwest Caribbean. Fresh winds and seas to
5 ft are noted over the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.
Moderate winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Gulf of Honduras,
along the coast of Nicaragua and south of the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, Bret will diminish through the early part of the
week, allowing winds and seas to diminish across the basin. Fresh
winds will persist over the south-central Caribbean through mid
week as high pressure builds north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Cindy.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active off northeast
Florida ahead of a mid to upper level trough approaching the area
from the west. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted near a
weak 1016 mb low centered near 27N55W. A cold front reaches from
the low to 22N60W. Weak ridging persists elsewhere, supporting
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas outside of the area of Cindy.

For the forecast west of 55W, T.S. Cindy will move to 16.0N 53.1W
this afternoon, and reach well to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands near 18.1N 55.6W Sun morning. Cindy will continue to move
WNW and reach 20.4N 57.9W Sun afternoon, 22.2N 59.6W Mon morning,
23.6N 61.0W Mon afternoon, and 24.8N 62.3W Tue morning. Cindy will
weaken to a remnant low over as it drifts farther north through
early Wed. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north-
central Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift northward through early
Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy.

$$
Christensen
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