[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 230241
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

The center of Bret is currently near St. Vincent in the Windward
Islands.  Satellite imagery and radar data from Barbados indicate
that the cyclone is losing organization due to increasing vertical
wind shear, with only minimal convection currently near the center.
The remainder of the convection is in bands and clusters well
removed from the center in the eastern semicircle.  Data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft shows that the maximum
surface winds are now near 50 kt, and that will be the initial
intensity.

The initial motion is now 270/16 kt.  Bret is on the south side of
a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should
steer the cyclone or its remnants almost due west for the next
several days.  The forecast track calls for Bret to move away from
the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours and then move
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.
There are no significant changes to either the track forecast
guidance or the forecast track since the previous advisory.

Bret is moving into an area of moderate to strong southwesterly
shear associated with an amplifying upper-level trough over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.  This, combined with some dry air
entrainment, should cause steady weakening starting on Friday
morning and continuing for the next several days.  The NHC
intensity forecast continues to trend downward and now calls for
Bret to degenerate to a trough or tropical wave Saturday night or
Sunday in agreement with the global model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is moving across the Lesser Antilles at this time as a
strong tropical storm. Conditions in the area should improve later
tonight as the storm moves away.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent
and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica. There is a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous
waves along the coast within the warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 13.3N  61.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 13.4N  63.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 13.5N  67.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 13.6N  70.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 13.7N  74.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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