[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 230241
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023

The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved this
evening. Deep convection has become more persistent during the past
several hours over the western portion of the circulation. GOES
proxy-visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data
indicate the center has moved farther underneath the expanding cold
dense overcast tonight. An ASCAT-B pass at 00 UTC showed an area of
30 to 35-kt winds in the northern semicircle of the cyclone, which
supports upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Cindy with this
advisory.

Despite some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment,
modest strengthening is forecast in the near term as the cyclone
moves over 27-28C waters with generally weak vertical wind shear
during the next couple of days. By Sunday, Cindy is forecast to move
under the influence of an upper-level trough extending from the
central Atlantic to the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The increasing
deep-layer shear associated with this feature is likely to cause the
small cyclone to weaken early next week, and the official NHC
forecast shows Cindy degenerating to a 30-kt remnant low by day 5.

Cindy is moving west-northwestward at 285/12 kt. The cyclone is
expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next
several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its
northeast. This track keeps Cindy well to the northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. The guidance is in fairly good agreement,
and the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model
consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 11.7N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 12.4N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 13.6N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.1N  52.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 16.7N  54.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 18.3N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 19.8N  59.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 22.3N  64.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 24.6N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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