[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave is SW of the
Cabo Verde Islands with axis near 28W and with a 1011 mb low near
10N28W. The wave axis extends from 05N to 14N, and is moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed from 04N to 13N between 25W and 33W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle
portion of next week while the system moves westward at 13 to 17
kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a
medium (60%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next
48 hours, and a high (80%) chance of development through the next
seven days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the tropical wave (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 41W
from 02N to 10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at
this time.

A tropical wave is SE of the Windward Islands with axis near 55W
from 02N to 10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No nearby significant
convection is noted.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 78W, moving
west at 20-25 kt. The wave is interacting with the East Pacific
Monsoon Trough and is generating heavy showers and tstms S of 16N
between NW Colombia and the western coastal waters of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 1011 mb low near 10N28W to 05N44W. The ITCZ continues from
05N44W to 05N52W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from
06N to 14N between 10W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, supporting mainly
light to gentle variable winds, except for locally moderate winds
along the Gulf coasts from Veracruz to Tampa Bay. By 2100 UTC, a
surface trough formed inland the Yucatan Peninsula, which is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E along the Peninsula offshore
waters. Seas are 3 to 4 ft basin-wide. In the NE gulf, middle to
upper level diffluence is supporting heavy showers and tstms along
the Florida Panhandle coastal waters, the Florida Big Bend to just
N of the Tampa Bay area. Otherwise, smoke due to agricultural
fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in coastal waters
from the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure and ridging will
generally persist through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse
north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast
period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except
locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. A
weak front will sink into the far northern Gulf by mid-week.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies
over the W Gulf for at least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a
tropical wave in the SW Caribbean.

The pressure difference between Atlantic subtropical high
pressure and lower pressure over Panama and NW Colombia is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds in the central, portions of
the SW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 8-10 ft in
the central and SW Caribbean as a result. Trades are gentle to
moderate elsewhere in the basin, with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades from the
central Caribbean to Nicaragua through Sun morning, then again
across the central Caribbean Sun night through early Wed. Fresh
to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight,
then moderate to fresh through Wed. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected across SW portions to the west of 76W
through Sun night. A strong tropical wave, and possible tropical
cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic
waters Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 32N49W extends a ridge WSW
to the central Bahamas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure over the central
Atlantic will remain in place today before shifting slightly
northward Sun and Mon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected N of
the Bahamas and W of 72W this evening through Sun. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next
several days, and locally fresh at times along northern
Hispaniola. A strong tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone,
will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu.

$$
Ramos
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