[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave extends along
27W, from 05N to 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt, with a broad 1011 mb
low just east of the wave axis 10N27W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 25W and 30W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
early to middle portion of next week while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. The is a medium (50%) chance of tropical cyclone
development over the next 48 hours, and a high (70%) chance of
development through the next seven days. Please refer to the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the tropical wave (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W from 03N to
11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 55W from
02N to 10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No nearby significant
convection is noted.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, from 12N southward,
moving west at 20-25 kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland over
Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, possibly
enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW
Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N and west of 76W to
the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
to 1011 mb low near 10N27W to 05N42W. The ITCZ continues from
05N42W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
from 10N to 13N east of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the W Gulf of Mexico. Weak
ridging prevails across the basin. Gentle to moderate S to SE
winds prevail, with seas of 3-5 ft.Smoke due to agricultural
fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in coastal waters
from the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will generally
persist through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of
the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally
fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. A weak front
will sink into the far northern Gulf by mid-week. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the W
Gulf for at least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a
tropical wave and the associated convection in the SW Caribbean.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over Panama and Northern Colombia supporting fresh to strong
trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Seas are 8-12 ft in
the central Caribbean as a result. Trades are moderate to fresh
elsewhere in the basin, with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong E
trades across most of the central Caribbean through today, then
gradually spread westward to 82W and weaken through Sun night.
Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across
SW portions to the west of 76W through Sun night. Trade winds will
become fresh to strong again across the central Caribbean early
Mon through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic, extending
from 24N77W to NE of the area. A line of scattered moderate
convection is moving off the coast of Florida, from Jensen Beach
north to Daytona Beach. 1025 mb high pressure is centered just
north of the area, and 1022 mb high pressure is centered near
28N28W. The unremarkable pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge and the ITCZ supports gentle to locally moderate
anticyclonic flow across the basin. S winds are moderate to fresh
near 29N66W. Seas of 3-6 ft are analyzed across the tropical
Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will remain in place
today before shifting slightly northward Sun and Mon. Fresh SW
winds are expected north of 29N and west of 65W through this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected N of the Bahamas
and W of 72W this evening through Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days,
and locally fresh at times along northern Hispaniola.

$$
Mahoney
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