[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162222
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W from 06N to
14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection,
possibly enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is from 07N to 12N
between 20W and 26W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook assigns
a low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48
hours, and a medium chance through the next seven days as the
wave moves west across the tropical Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W from 04N to
11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection,
possibly enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is observed from 06N to
09N between 29W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 50W from 02N to
10N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave
axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, from 12N southward,
moving west at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland over
central Venezuela, producing some scattered showers.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W
to 08N25W to 05N48W. All convection is described in the tropical
waves section. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary extending from 29N84W to 29N89W is producing
clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters.
No other areas of showers are noted at this time. Elsewhere, the
sensible weather is dominated by a surface ridge that extends all
the way into the central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow is observed around the ridge, except in the SW
Gulf, where SE winds are moderate to fresh, and the NE Gulf,
where WSW winds are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across
the basin, except in Florida Straits where seas are 1-3 ft in
light to gentle winds. Haze due to agricultural fires over Mexico
may be reducing visibilities to near 5 nm at coastal sites from
the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will generally
persist through Mon. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan
peninsula each night through the forecast period, becoming
locally strong tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun
and Sun night. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will
produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for at least the next day or
two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the lower
pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly near gale-force
winds over the south-central Carribbean Sea off the coast of
Colombia. The strong to near-gale force winds extend from the
coast of Colombia to 16N between 72W and 77W. Within the same
area, seas are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to
fresh easterly winds prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate
convection is in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 14N west of 79W,
associated with the eastern N Pacific's monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades
across most of the central Caribbean through early Sat, then
gradually spread westward and weaken through Sun night. Winds are
expected to pulse to near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela
and near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong E winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through
Sat night. Trade winds will become fresh to strong again across
the central Caribbean Mon through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is located from 26N to 29N between
65W and 68W and is moving generally northeast. Another area of
scattered showers and thunderstorms is located from 27N to 31N
between 72W and off the coast of Florida. A high pressure of 1024
mb is centered at 23N53W. This high pressure is currently
dominating the sensible weather in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Due this high pressure, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
analyzed across the basin and depicted well by the latest
scatterometer passes. Seas across the basin are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure will
remain in place through Sat before shifting slightly northward Sun
and Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are expected
north of 30N and west of 65W through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days,
and locally fresh at times along northern Hispaniola.

$$
Landsea
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