[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W from 05N to
14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection, possibly
enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is from 06N to 15N between 16W
and 24W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low
chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours,
and a medium chance through the next seven days as the wave moves
west across the tropical Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 33W from 04N to
11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection, possibly
enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is observed from 06N to 09N
between 25W and 37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 02N to
10N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave
axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, from 12N southward, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland over central
Venezuela, producing some scattered showers.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W
to 08N25W to 05N48W. All convection is described in the tropical
waves section. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A near stationary decaying frontal boundary is inland over the FL
Panhandle, producing clusters of showers and thunderstorms over
the NE Gulf waters. No other areas of showers are noted at this
time. Elsewhere, the sensible weather is dominated by a surface
ridge that extends all the way into the west-central Gulf of Mexico.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is observed around the
ridge, except in the SW Gulf, where SE winds are moderate to
fresh, and the NE Gulf, where WSW winds are moderate to fresh.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except in Florida Straits
where seas are 1-3 ft in light to gentle winds. Haze due to
agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities to
near 5 nm at coastal sites from the Yucatan Peninsula westward.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will generally persist
through Mon. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula
each night through the forecast period, becoming locally strong
tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except
locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night.
Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies
over the SW Gulf for at least the next day or two.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the lower
pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly near gale-force
winds over the south-central Carribbean Sea off the coast of
Colombia. The strong to near-gale force winds extend from the
coast of Colombia to 16N between 72W and 77W, based on the latest
ASCAT satellite imagery. Within the same area, seas are 8-12 ft.
Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh easterly winds
prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is in the
SW Caribbean from 09N to 13N west of 79W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across
most of the central Caribbean through early Sat, then gradually
spread westward and weaken this weekend. Winds are expected to
pulse to near gale- force in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the
coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is located from 26N to 29N between
65W and 68W and is moving generally northeast. Another area of
scattered showers and thunderstorms is located from 27N to 31N
between 72W and off the coast of Florida. A high pressure of 1024
mb is centered at 23N53W. This high pressure is currently
dominating the sensible weather in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Due this high pressure, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
analyzed across the basin and depicted well by the latest
scatterometer passes. Seas across the basin are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure will
remain in place through Sat before shifting slightly northward Sun
and Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are expected
north of 30N and west of 65W through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days,
and locally fresh at times along northern Hispaniola.

$$
Rosado-Vazquez/Mahoney
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