[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142224
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 24W from 03N to
12N, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm of the wave N of 05N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 41W from 03N to
11N, and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the vicinity of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 59W from Guyana to
13N, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is present S of 12N between 53W and 62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave along 79W S of 14N is moving W at 10 kt
into the East Pacific. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
offshore Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W and extends SW to 07N29W. The ITCZ continues westward
from 07N29W to 06N39W where it is intercepted by a tropical wave.
The ITCZ continues from 06N43W to 05N53W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves depicted in the section above,
scattered moderate convection has developed from 04N to 08N
between 49W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge stretching westward from the central
Atlantic to the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the
region. Moderate to locally fresh mainly S winds dominate, with a
diurnal surface trough along the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
causing locally strong winds just off the coast. Seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail over the basin, although some localized 4 to 6 ft seas
are likely occurring where the strong winds are present N of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the
Gulf waters and low pressure over NE Mexico will support moderate
to fresh SE winds across the W Gulf through Thu. Fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds are expected north and northwest of the
Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Smoke from
agricultural fires in Mexico may continue to produce hazy skies
over the SW Gulf for the next day or two.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave in the
SW basin.

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high pressure
centered near 26N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime
across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and
Costa Rica. Strong E winds are occurring over the south central
basin, S of 15N between 68W and 79W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in this
area. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft are
ongoing in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds
and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the rest of the basin,
except gentle winds are occurring offshore Panama, Costa Rica,
and Cuba.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across
most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force winds
are expected to occur in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast
of Colombia late night to early morning hours through Fri night,
as the Bermuda High strengthens some. Pulsing fresh to strong E
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night,
through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An Atlantic ridge extends westward from a 1022 mb high centered
near 26N57W to southern Florida and supports gentle to moderate
flow over most of the Atlantic basin north of 20N. Seas in this
region are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft N of 28N between
30W and 50W and 1 to 3 ft near the Bahamas and offshore Florida.
Also, in the far eastern Atlantic, offshore Morocco and Western
Sahara, fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist. S of 20N, trade
winds dominate, at moderate to fresh levels W of 45W and gentle to
moderate to the E. Seas in the trade wind belt are generally 5 to
7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High, which extends a
ridge along 26N, will be forcing generally gentle to moderate
winds during the next several days south of 29N. North of 29N and
west of 65W, fresh to strong SW winds are expected through Fri
night.

$$
KONARIK
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