[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 23W from 03N to
12N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the wave north of 05N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 40W from 03N to
11N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted
in the vicinity of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 57W from the NW
coast of Suriname to 13N, and moving west around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from the coast of South
America to 11N between 53W and 61W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has been relocated farther west with
its axis along 78W extending from the East Pacific to Panama to
14N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring
west of the wave offshore Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W and extends SW to 08N28W. The ITCZ continues
westward from 08N28W to 06N38W where it is intercepted by a
tropical wave. The ITCZ continues from 06N42W to 05N53W. Very
little convection is noted aside from the convection related to
the tropical waves described above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge stretching westward from the central
Atlantic to the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the
region. Moderate winds are noted across the basin, with S-SW
winds in the eastern Gulf and S-SE winds in the western Gulf.
Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf waters and low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico will
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the
western Gulf through Thu. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds
are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly
at night, through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Smoke
from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy
skies over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high centered
near 26N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime across the
entire basin, except monsoonal winds near Panama. Fresh to
strong E winds were noted in a recent scatterometer pass, where
seas are 7 to 9 ft, over the south-central basin just north of
Colombia, between 70W and 80W. Fresh winds are also noted within
the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of
4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the central
Caribbean through Sun. Near gale-force winds may occur in the Gulf
of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia Thu night through Fri
night as the Atlantic high pressure strengthens some. Pulsing
fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly
at night, through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An Atlantic ridge extends westward from a 1022 mb high centered
near 26N57W to southern Florida and supports gentle to moderate
flow over most of the Atlantic basin north of 20N. Seas range
from 3 to 5 ft east of 70W and 2 to 4 ft west of 70W. To the
east, a very weak stationary front extends from 31N28W to
25N38W. No significant wind or precipitation is associated with
this boundary. South of 20N and west of 37W, moderate to fresh
trade winds were noted in a scatterometer pass from this
morning, mostly likely due to the gradient between the lower
pressures associated with the tropical waves, and the central
Atlantic high pressure. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft in this region.

For the forecast W of 55W, little change of this weather pattern
is expected this week. A cold front is forecast to clip the NW
waters by Thu night. As a result, expect fresh to strong S to SW
winds and seas to 8 ft over the N waters, mainly N of 29N and W of
70W.

$$
Mora
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