[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall - Cuba and Bahamas:
Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air
motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest
of this area will increase the the potential for heavy rain and
strong thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur
from this afternoon through Sat afternoon across portions of
eastern and central Cuba and the central Bahamas. These rains
could cause flooding, especially over mountainous areas in eastern
and central Cuba. Please see the latest forecast from your
national meteorological service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 29W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N-08N between 25W-35W.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 50W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N-08N between 47W-53W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 68W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is limited
convection near the wave axis.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 79W, from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is south of 13N west of 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W
to 10N16W. The ITCZ continues from 10N16W to 04N51W on the coast
of Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
exists from 03N-08N east of 25N. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted from 03N-08N from 25W-54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters supporting
mainly light to gentle winds with seas in the 1-2 ft range.
Isolated moderate convection is noted north of 24N east of 88W in
association with an upper-level trough over the N central Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across the
basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate
winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the western Gulf
over the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect Cuba
through Sat afternoon.

The pressure gradient between the 1010 mb Colombian Low and high
pressure northeast of the Caribbean is supporting fresh E trades
over the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate elsewhere. Seas
are 4-6 ft over the central and E Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the W
Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Tropical
Atlantic will shift NW and strengthen through Thu, producing
increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean
through early Fri. Active weather is expected across N central
portions through Fri. Atlantic high pressure will shift NE and
weaken Fri night through the weekend, with winds and seas across
the basin diminishing modestly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect the
Bahamas through Sat afternoon.

A weak cold front extends from 30N51W west-southwestward to
29N57W, where it transitions to dissipating stationary front to
25N71W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-28N
between 60W-75W. Farther east, a cold front enters our waters near
31N15W to 21N29W, where it transitions to a stationary front to a
1012 mb low near 21N35W. West of the low, a cold front extends
westward to 20N41W, when transitions to a dissipating stationary
front to 31N45W. These frontal boundaries and associated low
pressure systems farther north have displaced the Bermuda/Azores
High down to 20N58W with a 1019 mb central pressure. Winds ahead
of the easternmost cold front north of 27N and east of 18W are SW
fresh to strong. Elsewhere across the entire subtropical N
Atlantic, the winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7-9 ft north
of 25N and east of 30W and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front will stall and
dissipate today. High pressure across the central Atlantic will
build westward across the forecast waters tonight through Sat.
Active weather is expected across the Bahamas and adjacent
Atlantic to 70W though Fri. Atlantic high pressure will drift NE
over the upcoming weekend, leading to a decreasing trend in winds
and seas across the area waters.

$$
Landsea
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net