[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070908
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jun 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands:
Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air
motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest
of this area will increase the the potential for heavy rain and
strong thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur
from this afternoon through Sat afternoon, especially across
portions of eastern and central Cuba, the central Bahamas, Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands. These rains could cause flooding,
especially over mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba.
Please see the latest forecast from your national meteorological
service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 28W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 knots to 15 knots. There is
limited convection in the vicinity of this tropical wave.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 48W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 45W
and 50W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 67W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is limited
convection near the wave axis.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 78W, from 15N
southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau
near 11N15W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 07N27W.
It resumes from 06N30W to 04N47W. Numerous moderate and scattered
strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N between 05W-20W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm north of the
ITCZ between 20W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters supporting
mainly light to gentle winds, with locally moderate winds west of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across the
basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate
winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the western Gulf
over the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect the NW
Caribbean through Sat afternoon.

High pressure has started to build north of the area. This has
brought a slight increase in trades over the south central
Caribbean, with fresh to locally strong winds prevailing.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the north central and
eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are found over the
western Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the south
central Caribbean, 4-5 ft over the north central and eastern
Caribbean, and 2-3 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Tropical
Atlantic will shift NW and strengthen through tonight, increasing
winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean through
early Fri. Active weather is expected across N central portions
through Fri. Atlantic high pressure will shift NE and weaken Fri
night through the weekend, with winds and seas across the basin
diminishing modestly.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect the
Bahamas through Sat afternoon.

A weak cold front extends from 31N57W to the central Bahamas.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are found within 150
nm east of the front and north of 25N. Farther east, another cold
front extends from 31N11W to 21N35W to 26N43W. Fresh to strong
winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are found within 90 nm east of the
front and north of 23N. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas
of 6-8 ft, are found west of the front to 40W. High pressure of
1018 mb is centered near 20N59W, with ridge extending westward
along 20N, then west northwestward to the southern Bahamas. Gentle
to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted south of the
area of high pressure and west of 40W. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 3-4 ft, are in the vicinity of the high center and along
the surface ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front over
the western Atlantic will dissipate today. High pressure across
the central Atlantic will build westward across the forecast
waters tonight through Sat. Active weather is expected across the
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic to 70W though Fri.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net