[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Heavy Rainfall...
A mid to upper level trough extends from the central Florida
Panhandle to the northwest Caribbean south of western Cuba. The
atmosphere has been very moist ahead of this trough with a deep
layer of southerly flow. The moist pattern along with divergent
flow aloft on the eastern side of the trough has been supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms over parts of south Florida,
Cuba, the Bahamas and Hispaniola over the past day or so, to
include heavy flooding in Haiti. The moisture is slowly shifting
eastward ahead of the trough, but there will still be enough
moisture through tonight that coupled with afternoon heating may
support additional showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba and
Hispaniola. Localized flooding and mudslides are therefore
possible, especially in areas that have already experienced heavy
rainfall in the past couple of days. A gradually drying pattern
will follow through mid week in these areas starting Monday.
Please refer to bulletins and advisories from the local weather
services in these areas for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 18W-20W, from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 kt. A few showers may be active
near the wave axis at 04N.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 46W-48W, from
12N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is evident near the wave axis.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 61W-62W moving
through the southern Windward Islands at 5 to 10 kt. A few showers
may be active along the coast of Venezuela near the mouth of the
Orinoco River.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over western Africa across
eastern Senegal and Guinea-Bissau but terminates along the
Atlantic coast. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 06N20W to 09N45W,
and from 07N50W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 03N to 05N between 25W and 28W, and from 08N to 09N
between 53W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is analyzed over the western Gulf, following
behind the remnant low of Arlene that is now moving eastward
through the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the
waters south of 25N, and 2-4 ft north of 25N.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will prevail across the
basin through the middle of the week, maintaining mainly gentle
to moderate winds. Fresh winds will pulse off the western coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh SW flow was possible early this morning off the
southern coast of western Cuba, associated with the remnant low
of Arlene currently north of region moving eastward through the
Straits of Florida. Combined seas may reaching 5 ft in this area.
These winds are diminishing, leaving gentle to moderate breezes
and 2 to 4 ft seas west of 70W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 3
to 5 ft seas persist east of 70W.

For the forecast, locally fresh SW winds and seas to 5 ft may
persist off the southern coast of western and central Cuba this
afternoon, although winds will be diminishing through late
afternoon. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will maintain
gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical
Atlantic, with occasional fresh pulses along the coast of
Venezuela starting Mon night. Winds and seas will increase
slightly over the eastern and central Caribbean by mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Showers and a few thunderstorms persist over the northern Bahamas,
ahead of the remnant low of Arlene which is currently approaching
from the Straits of Florida. Farther north, a surface trough
extends from low pressure near Bermuda to north of the northern
Bahamas near 28N78W. A scatterometer satellite pass from this
morning confirmed a band of fresh to strong SW winds within 270 to
480 nm southeast of the low pressure between 55W and 60W. Seas are
estimated to be 8 to 10 ft in this band of winds. Farther east,
1007 mb low pressure is centered near 28N43W. Scatterometer data
showed fresh to strong westerly winds within 120 nm south of this
low. Combined seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft in the area of
strong winds. Strong winds and rough seas are also evident north
of 25N between 20W and 30W, near a trough associated with the low
pressure. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the remnant low of Arlene will move
northeastward from the Straits of Florida and weaken to a trough
across the NW Bahamas on Mon. Atlantic high pressure extends from
the central Atlantic westward along 19N and then WNW to the
southeast Bahamas, and will shift slowly northward to along 23N by
Thu. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are
expected over the waters off northeast Florida through Mon, as a
weakening cold front sinks S into the region.

$$
Christensen
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