[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Heavy Rainfall...
A mid-upper level trough, with axis across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and the NW Caribbean, continues to support the
development of showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida,
Cuba, Jamaica the Cayman Islands and Hispaniola. The
southwesterly flow on the E side of the trough continues to
transport abundant moisture across this area. A tongue of
moisture is forecast to persist today over Hispaniola as the mid-
level trough moves eastward. This could lead to more rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. ONAMET, the Weather Service in
Dominican Republic, has issued alerts/advisories for possible
flooding of rivers, urban floods and landslides.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 17W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 10N E of 20W to the coast of Africa.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 45W, from 12N
southward, moving westward at 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is near the wave axis.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 59W, from 12N
southward, moving westward at 5 knots to 10 knots. Isolated
showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W, to
07N37W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 08N between 19W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range over the waters south of 25N between 84W
and 90W, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 3-4 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse off the western coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Mon night. Elsewhere over the
Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected through middle of the
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail east of 70W, as well as over the
NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are
in the 4-5 ft range east of 70W as well as over the far NW
Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas are in the 2-3 ft range.

For the forecast, weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic,
with occasional fresh pulses along the coast of Venezuela starting
Mon night. Winds and seas will increase slightly over the eastern
and central Caribbean by mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N22W to 28N30W to low pres near
Bermuda. Scattered convection is in the vicinity of the stationary
front. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 150 nm S of the
front, with seas in the 7-10 ft range. High pressure of 1016 mb
is centered near 23N22W, with ridge extending SSW to near 20N60W.
Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the area of high
pressure. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the
discussion waters. Outside of the area of 7-10 ft seas mentioned
above, seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough extends from low
pressure east of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong
winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it shifts ENE
through through tonight, impacting zones mainly north of 25N and
east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building
seas are expected over the waters off northeast Florida through
Mon.

$$
AL
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