[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Arlene is centered near 24.5N 85.5W at 03/0900 UTC
or 140 nm W of the Dry Tortugas moving SSE at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas are peaking near 12 ft in the
NW quadrant of Arlene. Scattered moderate convection prevails
within 120 nm east of the center of Arlene. Weakening is
expected, and Arlene is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low
tonight and dissipate Sunday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 02N to
12N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 03N to
15N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 12N between 50W and 56W, and inland over S French
Guiana and N Suriname.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 12N16W to 07N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N23W to 06N36W, it then resumes from 06N41W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N
to 10N E of 18W to the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm north of the ITCZ, between 40W and
46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Arlene.

Outside of Tropical Storm Arlene, gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range E of
90W, and 2-4 ft W of 90W..

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Arlene will weaken to a tropical
depression near 23.7N 84.7W this afternoon, become a remnant low
and move to 23.3N 82.8W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon.
Elsewhere over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are
expected into middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate winds are noted east of 70W, with light to gentle winds
elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 3-4 ft
range east of 70W, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic,
with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and
Colombia. Winds over the central part of the basin will diminish
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from low pressure near Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas. A stationary front extends across the northern
waters from 31N24W to 27N39W to 30N60W. High pressure of 1016 mb
is centered near 23N27W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north
of 27N between 55W and 65W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range west of 70W, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough extends from low
pressure near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong
winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it shifts ENE
through early next week, impacting zones mainly north of 25N and
east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building
seas are expected over the waters off northeast Florida late this
weekend through early Mon.

$$
AL
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