[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030432
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Arlene: At 03/0300 UTC, T.S. Arlene is centered
near 25.4N 85.5W, or 150 nm WNW of the Dry Tortugas, and is
moving SSE at 5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue
for the next day or so. Estimated minimum central pressure is
998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Seas range from 6-10 ft. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.
Weakening is expected, and Arlene is forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low on Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 02N to
12N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 03N to
15N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 10N between 51W and 55W, and inland over S French
Guiana and N Suriname.

The previously analyzed Caribbean Sea tropical wave has
dissipated.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 12N17W to 06N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N24W to 05N36W, then resumes from 06N39W to
05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between
20W and 26W. The latest ASCAT pass indicated locally strong
winds within this area of convection, though I note the likely
rain contamination that degrades the data. Additional scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm north of the ITCZ, between
41W and 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Arlene.

Moderate N winds prevail west of Tropical Storm Arlene, with
gentle flow in the far western portions of the Gulf. Seas are
3-6 ft across the basin, except 2-3 ft in the areas of weaker
winds. Some smoke and haze with reductions to visibility are
possible in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche due
to ongoing agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern
Central America.

For the forecast, Arlene will weaken to a tropical depression
near 24.4N 85.1W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to
23.5N 84.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere
over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected
into the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate trades in the E Caribbean diminish to light to gentle
speeds with varying directions in the W Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh S winds are noted in the Windward Passage. Seas
are 3-6 ft across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is
impacting W Hispaniola and adjoining waters, from 17N to 20N
between 71W and 74W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle
to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N
Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses
along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the
central part of the basin will diminish early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas near 26N78W
northeastward to 1002 mb low pressure near 32N65W. Gentle winds
are within the vicinity of the trough. Fresh winds are within
120 nm south of the low pressure center. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
W Atlantic, increasing to 6-8 ft north of 28N between 62W and
68W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 22N
to 26N between 67W and 71W. Scattered showers are elsewhere in
the vicinity of the surface trough. A warm front enters the TAFB
Area near 31N61W and continues to 29N59W. A stationary front
continues from 29N59W eastward to 26N40W then northeastward to
31N26W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the frontal
boundaries. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is guided by
two 1018 mb high pressures, centered near 23N32W and 25N25W. The
weak pressure gradient across the basin provides for light to
gentle W winds north of 21N and gentle to locally moderate
trades S of 21N. Seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure just north of the
area will shift ENE through early next week, impacting zones
mainly north of 25N and east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE
to E winds and building seas are expected over the waters off
northeast Florida late this weekend through early Mon.

$$
Mahoney
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