[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 022036
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Arlene has changed little during the last few hours.  The low-level
center is still estimated to be near the southwest side of the main
area of deep convection.  The initial intensity remains 35 kt based
on the earlier Hurricane Hunter data and a Dvorak 2.5 classification
from TAFB.  The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a
relatively small region of about 60 n mi to the north of the center
in the area of strongest thunderstorms.  Arlene is currently moving
to the south-southeast at about 5 kt and is being steered by a mid-
to upper-level trough that it is embedded within.  This overall
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Although Arlene has strengthened a little today, the models are in
good agreement that increasing vertical wind shear and notably
drier air are expected to affect the cyclone beginning tonight.
These conditions should cause a weakening trend, and Arlene is
expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on
Sunday.

The main hazard expected from Arlene is the potential for heavy rain
over portions of south and central Florida through Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 26.4N  85.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 25.3N  85.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 24.0N  84.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 23.2N  83.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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