[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 021436
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Convection has persisted throughout the morning, although the
tropical cyclone remains highly asymmetric and poorly organized.
The low-level center is located southwest of the large area of
persistent deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
has found no evidence of intensification this morning, and the
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate continues to support a steady
current intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is moving slowly south-southeastward with an initial
motion estimate of 175/4 kt. Numerical guidance and the official
track forecast remain similar to the previous advisory. The system
is expected to move southward to southeastward and accelerate its
forward speed somewhat during the next day. During this time, the
depression is expected to move along the western side of a
mid-level trough over Florida and east of a ridge over the western
Gulf of Mexico. The official track forecast is a blend of the
dynamical model consensus tracks and is generally consistent though
slightly east of the prior forecast.

The Hurricane Hunters will continue investigating the system for the
next several hours, and a short-lived increase to tropical storm
intensity cannot be ruled out. However, conditions are expected to
become increasingly unfavorable for intensification later today and
tonight. A combination of increasing vertical shear and drier air to
the west of the trough over the extreme eastern Gulf is expected to
cause the system to weaken in the next 12-24 hours. The official
intensity forecast shows the system as a remnant low in 36 hours and
dissipated by early Sunday.

Based on the track and intensity forecast for this system, coastal
watches and warnings are not necessary at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 26.7N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 25.6N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 24.2N  85.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 23.2N  84.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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