[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020910
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 27.0N 86.5W at 02/0900
UTC or 250 nm W of Ft. Myers Florida moving S at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently to 10
ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm in the
NE quadrant of the depression. A southward to south- southeastward
motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the
next couple of days. The latest forecast now maintains the system
as a tropical depression today before a weakening trend starts
this evening, with the system degenerating into a remnant low on
Saturday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from
13N to 02N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection
is observed from 04N to 09N between 27W and 32W.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 16N
to 04N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 10N between 50W and 53W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from
07N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is
occurring.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 08N23W to 06.5N29W. It
resumes from 06N32W to 04N48W. Numerous moderate with scattered
strong convection is observed near the west coast of Africa from
03N to 10N between 10W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 32W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Two.

Aside from Tropical Depression Two, moderate to locally fresh
winds are noted west of the Yucatan peninsula, with gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere W of 90W. Light to gentle winds prevail
over the SE Gulf. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 90W, and
1-2 ft E of 90W. Some smoke and haze with reductions to
visibility are possible in the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of
Campeche due to ongoing agricultural fires over southern Mexico
and northern Central America.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two near 27.0N 86.5W 1007
mb at 5 AM EDT moving S at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. The system will move to 26.2N 86.4W this afternoon,
24.7N 86.2W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 23.3N
85.5W Sat afternoon, 22.5N 84.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun
afternoon. Over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are
expected into early next week, with occasional fresh pulses along
the W coast of Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted east of 73W, with light
to gentle winds prevailing over the remainder of the Caribbean
waters. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range east of 73W, and 2-3 ft west
of 73W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic
through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the
N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the central part
of the basin will diminish early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas northeastward
to 1007 mb low pressure near 31N70W. Fresh to strong winds, and
seas of 4-7 ft, are noted within 90 nm east and southeast of the
low. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere W
of 60W. A second low is centered near 29N51W. High pressure is
centered near 22N36W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-6 ft,
are noted north of 20N and east of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 4-6 ft, are found south of 20N.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds are likely near
and to the SE of the low near 31N70W as it shifts ENE through
early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and
building seas are expected over the waters E of northern Florida
late this weekend through early Mon.

$$
AL
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