[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020410
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Two is centered near 27.5N 86.5W at 02/0300
UTC or 330 nm WNW of Ft. Myers Florida moving S at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently
to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm
in the NE quadrant of the depression. A southward to south-
southeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches with localized higher amounts up to 5 inches are
possible through Saturday across portions of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula. This rainfall is not directly
related to Tropical Depression Two. Regardless, the heavy
rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts. Some modest strengthening is possible
overnight, and the depression could become a tropical storm by
Friday morning. Weakening is expected to begin later on Friday,
and the system is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low on
Saturday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 29W from 13N to
02N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 04N to 07N between 27W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 50W from 16N to
04N, moving W at 10 kt. Associated convection is isolated and
weak.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 63W from 18N to
07N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 07N27W where
the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ
continues west of the wave from 06N32W to 04N48W. Numerous
moderate with scattered strong convection is observed near the
west coast of Africa from 03N to 13N between 07W and 15W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed north of the ITCZ from
05N to 07N between 34W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Two.

Aside from Tropical Depression Two, the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail, except light to gentle in the SE Gulf and a small
area of fresh NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight
seas dominate the waters away from Tropical Depression Two. Some
smoke and haze with reductions to visibility are possible in the
southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche due to ongoing
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern Central
America.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two near 27.5N 86.5W 1007
mb at 11 PM EDT moving S at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. The system is forecast to strengthen to a tropical
storm near 26.8N 86.5W Fri morning, weaken to a tropical
depression near 25.4N 86.4W Fri evening, move to 23.9N 86.0W Sat
morning, become a remnant low and move to 22.9N 85.1W Sat
evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Over the western Gulf,
gentle to moderate winds are expected into early next week, with
occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A series of surface troughs, combined with divergence in the
middle atmosphere, are creating an unstable environment in the
western Caribbean. Numerous moderate with isolated strong
convection is observed from 17N to 21N between 71W and 77W,
including the Windward Passage. Several rounds of heavy rain are
expected through the weekend, with rainfall totals of 4-8 inches
possible over the SE Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, eastern Cuba,
Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Otherwise the gradient between
subtropical high-pressure NE of the basin and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh SE-E winds
and 4-6 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean. The gradient relaxes
in the central and western Caribbean, where winds are gentle to
moderate and seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle
to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N
Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses
along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the
central part of the basin will diminish early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 30N74W. A surface trough
intersects the low, extending from 31N72W to 26N79W. Scattered
moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 20N to
31N between 63W and 75W. Winds are gentle to moderate west of
70W, with 3-5 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a cold front
extends from 31N31W to 27N40W where a weakening stationary front
continues to 31N61W. Winds are light to gentle north of these
boundaries and gentle to moderate from the W-SW south of the
boundaries. In the deep tropics south of 17N, NE-E trade winds
are moderate to locally fresh. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range
across the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough extends from near
West Palm Beach, Fl northeastward to 1008 mb low pressure near
30N74W then to 31N72W. Fresh to strong winds are likely near and
to the SE of the low as it shifts NE through early next week.
Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are
expected over the waters E of northern Florida late this weekend
through early Mon.

$$
Flynn
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