[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Don is centered near 37.3N 48.6W at 15/2100
UTC or 1030 nm W of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Only a weak band of moderate
convection is noted on the southeastern side of the circulation,
mostly removed from the center. Tropical storm-force winds
extend within 120 nm NE and 80 nm SE quadrants of center. Seas
in excess of 12 ft seas extend within 210 nm NE, 180 nm SE, and
180 nm NW quadrants of the center of Don. On the forecast track,
Don should turn toward the east on Sunday, southeast on Monday
and toward the south by Tuesday. Little change in strength is
forecast for the next several days, and Don could become a
remnant low pressure area in a few days.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the Ocean
Prediction Center, at the web-site
https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the latest
Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 21W/22W, south of 18N, moving westward
at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 49W/50W, south of 19N, moving westward
at 15 to 20 kt. A dry Saharan airmass has enveloped the wave and
no deep convection is associated with this feature.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 63W/64W,
south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are near the wave axis. moderate convection is
ahead of the tropical wave over the Windward Islands.

A second tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. Its axis is
along 84W/85W south of 20N, and stretches from western Cuba
across Central America into the eastern Pacific region. It is
moving at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce showers and
thunderstorms over Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth in Cuba as
well as over most of Nicaragua and parts of Honduras. Similar
convective activity is also noted over the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues SW to 10N27W, and then
to the W to near 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N51W to 09N59W.
Aside from the convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES
section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 08N to 11.5N between 28W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the
Gulf region. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
are noted over the western Gulf while mainly light and variable
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft dominates the remainder of the
basin. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted over the eastern
Gulf. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist from southwest Florida to
the central Texas coast through mid-week, while a trough will
develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move
offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh winds
pulsing north and west of the Yucatan peninsula during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section,
multilayer clouds, with possible showers, are noted over most of
the eastern Caribbean and across the south-central Caribbean.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage based on the San
Juan Doppler radar. Similar convection is noted over Hispaniola.

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near
gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
Sea, with the strongest winds occurring within about 90 nm of NW
Colombia. Seas in these waters are 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to strong
easterly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted in the north-
central Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the
basin, except in the lee of Cuba and near the Yucatan Channel
where seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted.

For the forecast, the tropical wave over the western Caribbean
near 85W will move across the remainder of the Caribbean tonight
into early Sun. Another tropical wave currently over the eastern
Caribbean will weaken as it moves across the central Caribbean
through late Sun and across the western Caribbean late Mon. A
third tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean from
late Sun into Mon, then move across the central Caribbean during
Mon and Mon night, and the western Caribbean Tue. The passage of
the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds across
mainly the central Caribbean through the period. Winds may reach
near gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight with seas
building to 11 or 12 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding Subtropical Storm Don.

The western Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure
system located W of Bermuda near 32N67W. This pattern is
supporting fresh to locally strong E winds off Hispaniola,
confirmed by scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this
area, reaching 7 ft near the Windward Passage. Elsewhere west of
55W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high pressure system centered
south of the Azores supports fresh to strong NE to E winds north
of 20N and east of 35W. The strongest winds are occurring between
the Canary Islands. Seas in the region are 8 to 11 ft based on
altimeter data. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent in the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist east of
the Bahamas along 25N through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh to
strong NE to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola. The ridge
will shift northward into Mon ahead of a tropical wave that will
be approaching the area from the east. Looking ahead, the northern
portion of the tropical wave will move westward south of 22N
into mid week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over the waters east of Florida to near 72W are expected to
remain quite active into Mon.

$$
GR
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