[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Subtropical Storm Don, at 15/1500 UTC, is near
36.5N 48.8W. Don is moving toward the NW, or 325 degrees,
08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to
50 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are within 150 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant; within 80 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant;
and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea
heights are 12 feet or higher within 210 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant;
within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 180 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are
reaching 18 feet. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 34N to 40N between 45W and 52W.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued
by the Ocean Prediction Center, at the web-site
https://www.opc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT1.shtml, and the
latest Subtropical Storm Don Forecast/Advisory and the
Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 04N to 14N between Africa and the 20W tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean is along 47W/48W, from 18N southward,
moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. A dry
Saharan airmass has enveloped the wave. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are from 17N southward between 40W and 50W,
at the western end of the ITCZ. The sea heights range
from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area that
is from 20N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 12N to 14N between
62W and 66W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere
from 15N southward between 58W and 70W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds also are from 17N southward
between 60W and 73W. Mostly fresh to some strong winds
are 19N southward between 54W and 66W, including in the
eastern parts of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 70W eastward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 22N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: numerous strong is from 11N to 13N between
82W and 85W, at the coast of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere within 360 nm on either
side of the tropical wave. Dense upper level clouds are
within 60 nm on either side of the line 11N81W 13N76W
14N72W. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that
range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are from Honduras
northward from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Mauritania from 18N to 19N along 16W, to 15N20W 10N26W
07N42W. The ITCZ is along 09N49W 10N59W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within
100 nm of the monsoon trough on the northern side,
between 27W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 08N to 13N between 23W and 33W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and other possible
rainshowers are in the remainder of the area that is from
15N southward from 40W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through 31N71W, through South
Florida, to 27N78W, toward the upper Texas Gulf coast.

The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet from the
coastal waters of Louisiana to the NE corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from 3 feet to
4 feet elsewhere. Moderate or slower wind speeds span
the area.

A ridge will persist from southwest Florida to the
central Texas coast through mid week, while a trough
will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening
and move offshore. This pattern will maintain moderate
to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

One tropical wave is in the eastern part of the Caribbean
Sea. A second tropical wave is in the western part of the
area. Please, read the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details
about the precipitation, the wind speeds, and the sea
heights.

Near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 73W and 78W. Mostly strong NE to some
fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to
10 feet, cover much of the central Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave that extends from just south of the
western tip of Cuba to across southern Costa Rica will move
across the remainder of the Caribbean through late today.
Another tropical wave currently moving across the Lesser
Antilles will move through the southeastern Caribbean today,
then weaken as it moves across the central Caribbean through
late Sun and across the western Caribbean late Mon. A third
tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean from late
Sun into Mon, then move across the central Caribbean during
Mon and Mon night, and the western Caribbean Tue. The passage
of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong winds
across mainly the central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information
about Subtropical Storm Don in the central Atlantic Ocean
near 36.5N 48.8W, at 15/1500 UTC.

A surface ridge passes through 31N71W, through South Florida,
to 27N78W, toward the upper Texas Gulf coast. A trough from
500 mb to 700 mb is in the SE U.S.A. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the west of the
line that runs from 31N65W to the coast of Cuba that is along
80W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 40W eastward. Mostly strong NE winds,
and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet, are in
this same area. Near gale-force NE winds are from 26N northward
from 23W eastward.

The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh NE winds are from 14N to 23N
between 40W and 55W. Variable fresh winds are from 13N
southward from 30W eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds
cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure will persist east of the Bahamas along 25N
through Sun, supporting pulses of fresh to strong NE
to E winds and rough seas off Hispaniola. The ridge will
shift northward into Mon ahead of a tropical wave that
will be approaching the area from the east. Looking ahead,
the northern part of the tropical wave will move westward
south of 22N into mid week.

$$
mt/ja
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