[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272220
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:

The gradient between a 1008 mb low pressure centered near 24N40W
and a 1042 mb high pressure centered over the north-central
Atlantic will continue to support frequent gusts to near gale-
force persisting into Sat morning. Seas will range from 11 to 15
ft in this area. Scattered moderate convection is observed across
the NE periphery of the low north of 22N between 31W and 43W.
Winds and seas will gradually diminish through Sat as the low
weakens and shifts NW. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information
on this gale warning.

Caribbean Gale Warning:

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower
pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly gales and seas of 10
to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. Conditions will improve
slightly during the day Sat, but gale conditions will pulse up
again Sat night and likely Sun night. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches into the Atlantic waters through the
coast of Sierra Leone near 08N14W to 05N17W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N17W across 02N30W to near the mouth of the
Amazon River, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast east of 15W and south of the
monsoon trough to 03N. Another area of scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ west of 20W from 06N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure across the United States Gulf Coast is
maintaining dry conditions, with no significant convection
evident across the basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are
occurring in the S and SE Gulf as well as the eastern Bay of
Campeche, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle
to locally moderate winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure shifting eastward across the Gulf
States into the western Atlantic will introduce fresh to strong
easterly winds across the the southern Gulf and the Strait of
Florida this evening through Sun. Southerly return flow will
increase over the NW Gulf beginning tonight ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the northern Gulf on Sun, then stall
and dissipate on Mon. Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly
winds will prevail for the entire Gulf through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more information
about a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A weak stationary front over western Cuba transitions to a trough
over the far NW Caribbean and extends SW to the Gulf of Honduras.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm behind the
boundary. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE
winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are evident across the central and SW
Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NW winds have also developed
late this afternoon in the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola.
Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft exist
across the northwestern part of the basin, while gentle to
moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere
across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south- central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Minimal
gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia
during the majority of the forecast period. A weakening stationary
front over the NW Caribbean will dissipate by tonight.
Strengthening high pressure N of the area will support fresh to
strong easterly winds across the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba
tonight through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
a Gale Warning near 30N36W.

Aside from the low pressure producing the gales mentioned in the
Special Features section above, the only other notable feature in
the basin is a cold front that stretches from to 27N71W. The
boundary transitions to a stationary front from 27N71W and
continues across the northwest Bahamas to northwestern Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm on either side
of the stationary portion of the boundary.

To the east of the low and N of 18N, extending E to the African
coast, fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail with seas of 7 to 11
ft in N swell. To the W, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
seas of 5 o 8 ft are occurring N of 18N between 45W and 60W. Also,
S of 23N, similar conditions are observed N of the Greater
Antilles. Elsewhere between the frontal boundary and the low,
light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail. Behind the
front, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft
are observed. Mainly gentle trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail
across the remainder of the Tropical Atlantic Basin south of 18N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach
from 31N66W to the central Bahamas by tonight, and from 31N62W to
the central Bahamas by Sat afternoon while weakening. Then, the
front will lift northward and dissipate on Sun. A tight pressure
gradient across the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds and building seas across the Bahamas, including the Great
Bahama Bank and north of the Windward passage tonight through Sun.
Southerly flow will increase offshore NE Florida by Sun night
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western
Atlantic on Mon.

$$
KONARIK
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