[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:

The gradient between a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 24N40W
and a 1042 mb high pressure centered over the north-central
Atlantic will continue to support minimal gale-force winds near
30N34W through tonight with frequent gusts to near gale-force
persisting through tomorrow morning. Seas will peak at 11 to 15 ft
in this area as well. Scattered to moderate convection is observed
across the NE periphery of the low north of 22N between 31W and
43W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish this evening through
Sat as the low weakens and shifts westward. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information
on this gale warning.

Caribbean Gale Warning:

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower
pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly gales and seas of 10
to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia. Conditions will improve by
this afternoon, but are expected to reach gale-force again
tonight and Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
the Offshore Waters Forecasts at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches into the Atlantic waters through the
coast of Sierra Leone near 08N16W to 05N17W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N17W across 02N30W to near the mouth of the
Amazon River, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast east of 15W and south of the
monsoon trough to 03N. Another area of scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ west of 20W from 06N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure across the United States Gulf coast is
maintaining dry conditions, with no significant convection
evident across the basin. A recent scatterometer pass reveals
fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft across the east and
southeast Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Outside of light
to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft across the northwestern
Gulf, gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail
across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the high pressure shifting eastward across the
Gulf States will introduce fresh to strong easterly winds across
the the southern Gulf and the Strait of Florida this evening
through Sat night. Southerly return flow will increase over the NW
Gulf beginning tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to
enter the northern Gulf on Sun, then stall and dissipate on Mon.
Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for the
entire Gulf through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more information
about a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A modest stationary front reaches southwestward from the western
end of Cuba to 20N86W and transitions to a surface trough at 15Z
that extends to the coast of Honduras near Le Ceiba. Scattered
showers are noted within 60 nm on either side of the surface
trough west of 85W. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to near-
gale ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are evident across the
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 8
ft exist across the northwestern part of the basin, while gentle
to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail
elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Minimal
gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia
during the majority of the forecast period. A weakening stationary
front over the NW Caribbean will dissipate by tonight.
Strengthening high pressure N of the area will support fresh to
strong easterly winds across the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba
tonight through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
a Gale Warning near 30N34W.

Aside from the low pressure mentioned in the special features
section above, the only other notable feature in the basin is a
cold front that stretches from northwest of Bermuda across 31N68W
to 27N72W. The boundary transitions to a stationary front from
27N72W and continues across the northwest Bahamas to northwestern
Cuba. Patchy showers are observed within 40 nm on either side of
the stationary front between 77W and 80W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to E winds and
seas of 7 to 11 ft in northerly swell are seen north of 18N
between the northwest African coast and 35W, including the Canary
Islands. Further west, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and
seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring south of a line from 31N55W to the
coast of Hispaniola near 20N73W, including the Lesser Antilles.
North of the line and between the cold front, light to gentle
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail. Behind the front, moderate
to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are observed.
Light to gentle trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the
remainder of the Tropical Atlantic Basin south of 18N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach
from 31N66W to the central Bahamas by tonight, and from 31N57W to
the central Bahamas by Sat night while weakening. Then, the front
will lift northward and dissipate on Sun. A tight pressure
gradient across the area will support fresh to strong NE to E
winds and building seas across the Bahamas, including the Great
Bahama Bank and north of the Windward passage tonight through Sun.
Southerly flow will increase offshore NE Florida by Sun night
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western
Atlantic on Mon.

$$
Nepaul
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